Thread by @GregBufithis

1/x Interesting comments this morning at our weekly breakfast. Large continent of my Brit expats friends in attendence so Brexit on the table 🤯. Just a few notes: more likely the fractures will widen. UK union is the likely victim ...

2/x When the people of Scotland voted in 2014 against separation, they were opting for an open over a closed future. Scotland’s unique ties with the other three nations of the UK sat alongside Britain’s place in the EU. Brexit changes fundamentally this calculus ...

3/x ... for all the nonsense spouted by some Brexiters about “Global Britain”, the road out of Europe leads back to little England. And even if there was a second referendum and there was a clear vote to remain, Brexiteers would not go away ...

4/x ... and would continue to disrupt politics for a generation, until they died off. Let's lance the boil, let them have their way and ruin the economy then in a few years we can rejoin the EU and get back on track. Then, like puritan ideas after the Restoration ..

5/x ... the idea of Brexit will never be taken seriously again.

Also, the population that are eligible to vote in a 2nd referendum will not be the same as it was for Ref:1. 600,000 citizens die each year in UK (not all of them were eligible to vote) ...

6/x ... the majority of these would have been over 55/60. And by the time Ref:2 could be held those aged 15/16 and 17 in June 2016 would now be electors (well at most of them will). And most think the number of ex-pats who did not vote will almost certainly votes next time ...

7/x ... So as the population has changed Ref:2 may not reflect the wishes of the electorate back in June 2016. Yes, result very uncertain - and the turnout even more uncertain as many are fed up with Brexit and the fact that their vote in Ref:1 does not seem to have mattered.