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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I haven’t seen this research (is it representative samples? Is it published?) can only speak re the polling I helped commission in Nov 18 which showed virtually no one thought this then.
I was surprised by this tbh. Possible views changed over summer but I’d like to see reliable data from earlier before drawing that conclusion
So I wouldn’t rule out people misperceiving no deal as Remain in the past (but haven’t seen representative polling one way or the other) but they clearly no longer do so (though they do have rather relaxed view of potential costs)
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
One of the most damaging zombie beliefs in the whole politics of Brexit debate is the "Lab needs to win/hold Leave seats and therefore needs to win/hold Leave votes". The second does *not* follow from the first.
For example, if a seat voted 52% Leave, and it is a Con-Lab marginal, then it is very likely that a *large majority* of Lab votes in that seat will come from Remain supporters (and a large majority of Con votes from Leave supporters)
It should be, but never is, obvious that "appeal more to Leave voters" is not the only strategy for winning/holding such a seat, nor will it usually or necessarily be the best one.
1. If you lose even one Remainer for each two Leavers gained, you're stuffed
Read 7 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Not sure why @Channel4News have become so fond of this "big angry crowd live from a big room" approach to covering Brexit, as it conveys nothing beyond that people are divided and v worked up, which we already know.
@Channel4News In some respects its worse than useless, because producers will seek a "balanced" audience for fear of being portrayed as biased one way or the other. So I suspect Brexit supporters are a higher share of this Brexit inbetweener shouty focus group than they are among young ppl
@Channel4News .@Femi_Sorry is good though
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Insightful stuff from Stephen as usual. People’s Vote campaign still haven’t figured out good message to win the referendum they campaign for. One problem imo is the one @hugorifkind identified today - Remainers have gone Conan and are more interested in venting than persuading
Imagine a horde of #fbpe types descending on the nations doorsteps to explain to joe public that he is a racist moron duped by Russians into blaming all his problems on the immigrants who keep this country running, who has now been given a golden opportunity to reverse his error.
Sound persuasive? No? Well that’s the jist of the message I hear from the most committed and active pro-Remain types nearly all the time. It doesn’t seem to trouble them that “my opponents are stupid” isn’t great for a campaign which requires winning over at least some of them.
Read 3 tweets

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