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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ok, we've had a *ton* of Brexit idiocy in the last 24h! A quick wrap-up:
- Defense secretary said paintball guns could be used to defend Gibraltar
- Theresa May's draft speech was full of lies about the conduct of the Welsh Assembly referendum, so she changed it and hoped nobody
noticed (they did)
- A minister was snapped coming out of a Cabinet briefing with a document marked "No food. No channel tunnel." The staging suggests it was likely deliberate.
- Esther McVey talked about the implementation period after a no deal Brexit, which of course doesn't exist
- Liam Fox said a no deal Brexit "wasn't national suicide" and was "survivable"
- Government announced Brits in EU27 have to hurry to convert their drivers licenses before 29 March, because in case of no deal they may have to take their test all over again
Theresa May gave her big Brexit speech in a factory that had received nearly £500K in EU grants, and against a backdrop of mugs - it was a pottery - leading the headlines to write themselves

Think that's it, but Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving, so I may have missed some.
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Completely idle speculation, but I wonder what would happen if say 325 Tories, Labour, LibDems and SNP got together and formed a grouping meant to create a Government of National Unity, but without including either TM or JC? Since no party has a majority in the HOC that would
seem at first glance to be as legitimate as both TM's government and JC's opposition. In other words, although it's never been done before of course, is there anything explicit to prevent third party attempts during the 14 days after a lost vote of no confidence?
Because at the moment there are plenty of people on both sides of the house who have more in common with each other on Brexit (the ONLY issue that matters right this second) than they do with either of their own front benches.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Ok, so Theresa May's almost certainly going to win the vote of no confidence, but even if she didn't it's not an automatic recipe for a GE.

There's a 14 day period in which the Government can try and reclaim the confidence of the House. That would seem virtually impossible, but
Brexit creates so many "firsts" it just might happen.

What if TM went over Jeremy Corbyn's head to Labour back benchers with this package:
- no deal immediately off the table
- A50 extension
- permanent custom's union
- guaranteed people's vote
- place at negotiating table
It would have to be in some legally binding form, if such were possible. I wonder if that carrot would be enough to persuade them that backing her in a new confidence vote (no limit to the number that can be held in the 14 days) is more likely to give them a Brexit they can live
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Time for a brief chat about an 8% hit to GDP, which is what is forecast under a no deal scenario.

You might think "Hmm, that means I will lose 8% of my income". Sounds bad, for sure, but potentially "survivable" (to use Liam Fox's expression from yesterday).
But it doesn't work like that. The pain's not evenly distributed. What happens in practice is some firms weather the storm just fine, maybe because they're in industries that aren't affected to the changing situation, aren't connected to the EU even at one- or two- removes, etc.
Other firms take a massive hit. The downturn of 2008/2009 represented about a 4% drop in GDP, and saw millions of people out of work and thousands and thousands of businesses go bankrupt. So imagine what twice that damage would look like.
Read 10 tweets

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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @DominicRaab and Brexiteers think a defeat for @theresa_may
on Dec 11 will allow the UK to renegotiate the Irish backstop, specifically the right to leave unilaterally.

Here's why, after chats with both sides, that ain't happening IMO. 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may First Raab thinks a PM that shows some "will and resolve" can get the EU to change its mind.

But his own experience must tell him different. Remember his own failed tilt at @simoncoveney demanding three-month exit clause? Fail. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DominicRaab @theresa_may @simoncoveney But even allowing for disingenuousness, there are 3 reasons why the EU is not bluffing when it says it won't renegotiate the backstop to give the UK a unilateral walkout clause.

1. They actually want to avoid a hard border
2. Political solidarity
3. They don't buy UK bluff /3
Read 20 tweets
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Darran Marshall
@DarranMarshall
Northern Ireland's pro-remain parties are meeting @theSNP @LibDems & @Plaid_Cymru in London today. They will meet Labour leader @jeremycorbyn this afternoon.

#brexit
DUP deputy leader @NigelDoddsDUP: “Sinn Fein will turn up today at Westminster, do a couple of meetings, talk in front of the cameras and then disappear until they repeat the exercise in another couple of weeks. It’s a con job and a classic example of stunt politics."
.@NigelDoddsDUP : If Sinn Fein MPs were truly passionate about #Brexit, they would take their seats in the House of Commons and actually use their votes to influence the outcome. Over 40% of the divisions on EU Withdrawal Bill had a majority of less than 20.
Read 8 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Paul Chaplin #FBPE 🇪🇺
@CottlestonPie
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ So The Sun is bemoaning that the Royal Mail is not going to make a line of #Brexit stamps

2/ This is the most Brexity thing imaginable. Forget the very real consequences of Brexit on the country, on people, on businesses. Let's celebrate! Let's have the symbolism! Make British Stamps Great Again!
3/ But at the time of writing the Royal Mail is not budging.

No Brexit stamps.

BOOOOO!
Read 14 tweets

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