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THREAD: I’ve spent most of today speaking to eyewitnesses, activists and analysts about the crackdown in Zimbabwe. Here are some initial observations. #ZimbabweShutdown
We still have very limited information about what is going on. The internet shutdown has been brutally effective in preventing communication both within Zimbabwe and between Zimbabwe and the outside world.
The extent of the crackdown, which appears to have a national footprint, suggests lots of organisation. Deploying so much force over such a wide area takes serious planning. This does not feel like a spontaneous response to protests.
It is very significant that President Mnangagwa is out of the country, leaving VP Chiwenga in charge. There have been plenty of reports of infighting within Zanu-PF. Is Chiwenga now shoring up his power?
Zimbabwe is broke. Not just the people, but also the government. That’s what is driving unrest. The regime turns to violence because it has no other resources with which to address the problem.
The ‘national stayaway’, where people stayed at home instead of going to work, was very effective. Big cities felt like ghost towns. And it definitely rattled the regime.
Stayaways are supposed to be relatively safe form of protest, because you can protest in the safety of your own home. By breaking down doors, smashing windows, and dragging people from their houses, security forces are sending a clear message that this is not the case.
Extra context for this is that a potentially debilitating civil service strike is scheduled for next week. There’s no money to avert the strike, so instead the government has dramatically raised the stakes of not working.
Hundreds of people have been arrested, including high profile figures like @PastorEvanLive. He is set to appear at the court in Rotten Row (that really is the street name) tomorrow. It could be a potential flashpoint.
I was there when @PastorEvanLive faced trumped-up treason charges in 2016. Thousands demonstrated outside the court in support of him, ultimately forcing his release. Will they do so again? How will the state react if they do?
Meanwhile, President Mnangagwa is in Russia begging for a handout. None of this is likely to convince the Kremlin that he is in control. He’s going to Davos next, where investors will be even less impressed.
I am very nervous about what comes next for Zimbabwe. The government is out of money and out of options, and so reverts to brute force. But economic desperation will embolden protesters, who are also running out of options.
Some people thought that Mugabe’s departure meant real change in Zimbabwe. But maybe the revolution is only just beginning.
