Thread by @bopinion

When and how will the shutdown end? A bit of game theory is in order ➡️

The key actors? The employees of the U.S. Government bloom.bg/2DfvblD

The shutdown isn’t popular with voters:

63% disapprove of the government shutdown
55% are opposed to a wall on the Mexican border
56% blame Trump and the GOP for the shutdown bloom.bg/2DfvblD

The key question is when the shutdown will start to bite. For now, most of the country is continuing as normal:

💵 Social Security and Medicare checks are going out
🛫 Planes are still flying
🧀 The FDA are inspecting high-risk foods bloom.bg/2DfvblD

The power is held by those with critical jobs:

The TSA absentee rate has gone up to 7.6% from 3.2% a year ago. If screeners stayed at home in much greater numbers, it would cripple the entire nation and potentially force Trump’s hand bloom.bg/2DfvblD

Why are essential government employees going to work at all?

During past shutdowns, government employees received back pay, plus it is illegal for them to strike. So why not show up? bloom.bg/2DfvblD

If TSA workers walked off the job, they would run the risk of public disapproval. Remember what happened with Reagan?

In 1981, he fired striking air-traffic-control workers and banned them from federal employment. 59% of Americans applauded this move bloom.bg/2DfvblD

They may not have the right to strike, but federal employees can still gum up the works with high absenteeism and poor performance.

The break point? When an essential group like the TSA gets tired of playing along with Trump's charade bloom.bg/2DfvblD

The final equilibrium looks like this:

1️⃣ Weeks more of Trump talking about the wall
2️⃣ Trump losing popularity
3️⃣ Congressional Republicans fold
4️⃣ Democrats looking better
5️⃣ Federal workers emerging with bruised morale, but mostly intact bloom.bg/2DfvblD