Thread by @bopinion

America’s economic battle with China is all too familiar. It echoes the first World War between Britain, the superpower, and Germany, the rising power.

Instead of armed conflict, the main threat is a growing rift between the world’s two biggest economies bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

China should look back at history. In WWI, Germany never understood the consequences of its militarism and found itself short of friends.

To escape the Thucydides’s trap, China will need two things: patience and popularity 👐 bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

Xi Jinping stands a much better chance of rising peacefully if he has the world by his side 🌏

China’s biggest handicap? Its public inability to admit that it has done anything wrong bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

Chinese officials wonder why American companies haven’t rushed to defend the multilateral trading system against Trump.

The answer is fairly simple: Western CEOs are fed up bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

American businesses don’t like the way China treats them:

🛑 Artificial barriers
🙅‍♂️ Ownership restrictions
🌐 Intellectual property theft
🏭 Repeated delays in opening up markets bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

China is slowly inching in the right direction. Earlier this month Xi promised to open up the Chinese economy and import $30 trillion worth of goods 💰 bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

Trump’s enormous unpredictability isn’t helping. In Beijing, debate rages about what the U.S. president actually wants bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

🇺🇸 Trump is 100% America First. He has no intention of letting China become the world’s biggest economy. He's surrounded by people who think China has cheated America:

– Mike Pence
– Robert Lighthizer
– Peter Navarro
– John Bolton bloom.bg/2E6V1dd

Trump may give Xi a small concession in Buenos Aires, but he is likely to keep bashing China until it gives in.

In order to win, the Chinese will need to be very patient 🇨🇳 bloom.bg/2E6V1dd