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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A Free Trade Agreement is for life not just for Christmas.
Lots of people are having fun inventing trade deals, tariff policy, future regulations, but the reason these things take years is you need to make sure what you decide actually suits your economy
There might also be a few bridges to build with all those businesses that some MPs have been insulting for quite a while now
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
No she isn't. She's close to a majority for an imaginary deal the EU told her they didn't accept 18 months ago. That isn't leadership but abdication.
This is Government wishful thinking of the sort we last saw between the Chequers White Paper and the Salzburg Summit. Does the Government need reminding that it didn't go too well? thesun.co.uk/news/8283772/b…
Reminder. I simulated the negotiation after Parliament passed an amendment on the backstop. It didn't go too well for the UK...
Read 16 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Weekly Brexit tracker time, and as I warned earlier, supporters of a referendum may want to look away now...
No votes this week, and it looks better for the PM's deal, as the alternatives lose ground. No-deal as the default stays as a strong possibility, but the campaign for a referendum simply doesn't seem to have the support. So if it isn't going to be no-deal...
Re-posting my own article from yesterday, the differences between the PM's deal and Labour's policy are minor - only tribal politics and appalling leadership stops a deal being confirmed. The chances of EEA thus also recede... politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Ok, let's run the Brexit negotiation with the EU after Tuesday, if Parliament has passed amendments to limit the backstop to 2021, and find an alternative to it. UK: Please take away the backstop.... 1/ thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/82…
EU: We can take away the backstop if you commit in treaty to staying in the single market and customs union.
UK: That breaches our red lines.
EU: You're asking us to breach our red lines but you're not prepared to move yours.
UK: But we can't get a deal on that basis...
EU: We can give you review periods, technology committees, all manner of things, but our Parliament will allow nothing but a fully permanent backstop.
UK: But our Parliament will not allow a backstop...
Read 6 tweets

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Todd N. Tucker
@toddntucker
Trade was "extremely important" for 25% of voters, or 11th most important of 12 issues. Only Russia was lower.
Trade was extremely or very important for 61% of voters, at 10th place - below Kavanaugh and above climate change/Russia.
news.gallup.com/poll/244367/to…
This confirms my intuition. Trade can't be completely disregarded as an issue, but neither should it occupy pride of place. For a decent chunk of voters, it's something they feel passionately about. For a majority of voters, it's something they follow.
Politicians like Sherrod Brown - who do well in Midwestern swing states - emphasize their populist bonafides on the issue.
dispatch.com/news/20180612/…
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Flick Ruby
@FlickRubicon
What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
ACTA, the "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement", was ultimately rejected. ​T​he agreement was an attempt to create a new global standard for intellectual property rights enforcement. wikileaks.org/wiki/Proposed_…
WikiLeaks released a document during talks at the WTO in Geneva that showed how the EU used threats to "reprogram development aid" if developing countries do not agree to sign a new free trade agreement with the EU. wikileaks.org/wiki/EU_aid_de…
Read 10 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Trade with the EU is just under half our international trade. Leavers hold up that statistic to claim it means there’s more opportunity for trade with the rest of the world than the EU. But the important stat is how much of our trade is covered by free trade agreements: 60%.
(48% with the EU, 12% with non-EU countries via our EU membership.)

What that means is that, if we fail to come to terms on a new trade deal with the EU (which negotiates as a block) there’s a gaping 48% of our trade that suddenly falls outside free trade deals. That’s massive.
Even if every non-EU country we have trade deals via the EU with agrees to new bilateral deals, that’s only 12% ie 1/5th of the way towards replicating the status quo.

Opposite scenario is survivable: EU deal, but no non-EU rollover. But no EU free trade is economic apocalypse.
Read 4 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets
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Victoria Freeman
@make_trouble
Free trade deals are chock full of sovereignty impingements. Getting *any* big deals thru parliament will be hard
Particularly given Brexiteers have made rejecting a close trade relationship with the EU all about sovereignty. You reap what you sow.
And wait til people realise there are trade offs. It’s not possible to have “free” trade with the globe. One deal will limit opportunities for others.
Read 10 tweets
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unseen1
@unseen1_unseen
1. The last 30 years saw a destruction of our industrial base due to crappy Trade deals, tax policy, over regulations and just plain liberal stupidity.
2. We suffered through the closing of over 70,000 plants, the laying off of tens of millions of workers, the offshoring of jobs and plants, housing crashes, pension funds imploding, domestic inflation of food, energy, as well as the destruction of the core family unit.
3. These actions caused the federal welfare budget to explode with increases in Section 8, food stamps, disability, direct payments, the increasing need for medicaid and health insurance (obamacare), early retirements and unemployment payments.
Read 18 tweets

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