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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Weekly Brexit tracker time, and as I warned earlier, supporters of a referendum may want to look away now...
No votes this week, and it looks better for the PM's deal, as the alternatives lose ground. No-deal as the default stays as a strong possibility, but the campaign for a referendum simply doesn't seem to have the support. So if it isn't going to be no-deal...
Re-posting my own article from yesterday, the differences between the PM's deal and Labour's policy are minor - only tribal politics and appalling leadership stops a deal being confirmed. The chances of EEA thus also recede... politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
The trend then is back towards a relatively hard Brexit. That's where the MPs appear to cluster, even though most of them know the PM's deal is no kind of deal at all. By attacking a soft Brexit the referendum campaign harmed themselves more...
A good but once again distinctly un-cheerful summary here from @IanDunt politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/01/…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
No she isn't. She's close to a majority for an imaginary deal the EU told her they didn't accept 18 months ago. That isn't leadership but abdication.
This is Government wishful thinking of the sort we last saw between the Chequers White Paper and the Salzburg Summit. Does the Government need reminding that it didn't go too well? thesun.co.uk/news/8283772/b…
Reminder. I simulated the negotiation after Parliament passed an amendment on the backstop. It didn't go too well for the UK...
Read 16 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
A Free Trade Agreement is for life not just for Christmas.
Lots of people are having fun inventing trade deals, tariff policy, future regulations, but the reason these things take years is you need to make sure what you decide actually suits your economy
There might also be a few bridges to build with all those businesses that some MPs have been insulting for quite a while now
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Ok, let's run the Brexit negotiation with the EU after Tuesday, if Parliament has passed amendments to limit the backstop to 2021, and find an alternative to it. UK: Please take away the backstop.... 1/ thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/82…
EU: We can take away the backstop if you commit in treaty to staying in the single market and customs union.
UK: That breaches our red lines.
EU: You're asking us to breach our red lines but you're not prepared to move yours.
UK: But we can't get a deal on that basis...
EU: We can give you review periods, technology committees, all manner of things, but our Parliament will allow nothing but a fully permanent backstop.
UK: But our Parliament will not allow a backstop...
Read 6 tweets

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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
1) Pres Juncker just said on #Brexit "Don't force me to speculate, let me do what I can" (original in French: "laissez moi faire")
2) There’s talk of a Juncker/Tusk letter by Monday setting out EU reassurances on the backstop. This is not 100% confirmed
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katya adler
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1) While all versions of #Brexit under the sun are being thought about in Parliament there’s no whiff of the EU changing its position
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Werner Trapmann #EU27Voices4UKRemain
@WernerT_Man
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt Die Bürgerrechte der @The3Million sowie @BritishInEurope finden trotz allem zu wenig Gewichtung! Die EU hat nur dann eine Zukunft, wenn sie sich weniger von Lobbygruppen&mächtigen Wirtschaftsunternehmen leiten lässt&ein Bürgerparlament installiert,das mit entscheidet&konrolliert!
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? An analysis, with data and charts!

Part 2: **Cabinet vs Shadow Cabinet**

#Labour #Conservatives

Again, usual spiel on being conducted in personal capacity
I’ll start off with saying that this really isn’t looking great for the Shadow Cabinet… So for the faint of heart or easily enraged, look away now. 1/
Across ~2000 news headlines on #Brexit since Jan 18, there were 463 references to Conservative Cabinet ministers, and just 48 for their Shadow counterparts.

In other words, 91% of news headline references to Cabinet-level MPs were to Government politicians. 2/
Read 19 tweets
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Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
Okay, we've got far enough now that we can see No. 10's #Brexit strategy. /Thread
It's basically to bring things to a head as late as humanly possible - December to late January. At that stage they will squeeze Tory rebels with (among Euroenthusiasts) 'it's this or chaos' and (among Eurosceptics) 'it's this or no Brexit at all'.
Early signs - this will help with the pro-Europeans. Will probably work there. With the Eurosceptics? You can squeeze them, but probably not below 20-30, surely.
Read 9 tweets
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sarah
@gsazza
I am embarking on rewatching all MCU movies in order, ready for Infinity War. Prepare for me to once again begrudgingly acknowledge Cap 1 is actually a good movie. I will attempt to keep live tweeting to a minimum but cannot promise anything.

Wish me luck, friends.
IMMEDIATE LIVE TWEET this happens less than five minutes into iron man 1 fuck me and this connected universe good bye (before john slattery was howard 👍)
pre afghanistan tony is such a fucking hot mess like people who limit tonys trauma to avengers/iron man related stuff dont fucking understand tony at all get awaY FROM MY SON
Read 473 tweets

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