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No she isn't. She's close to a majority for an imaginary deal the EU told her they didn't accept 18 months ago. That isn't leadership but abdication.
This is Government wishful thinking of the sort we last saw between the Chequers White Paper and the Salzburg Summit. Does the Government need reminding that it didn't go too well? thesun.co.uk/news/8283772/b…
Reminder. I simulated the negotiation after Parliament passed an amendment on the backstop. It didn't go too well for the UK...
A good question.
Wouldn't passing an amendment about the backstop at least show what deal would pass Parliament?
A: No if it directly attacks the other side's clear red lines. Yes if it seemed a compromise. A time-limited backstop is the first.
Happy to answer more...
Wouldn't passing an amendment about the backstop at least show what deal would pass Parliament?
A: No if it directly attacks the other side's clear red lines. Yes if it seemed a compromise. A time-limited backstop is the first.
Happy to answer more...
Next question.
Why is the Government supporting time-limiting the backstop when they know EU oppose?
A: Don't want to stand up to MPs most likely, poss EU give something slightly related like review periods, or just to say we tried now vote for the deal
Why is the Government supporting time-limiting the backstop when they know EU oppose?
A: Don't want to stand up to MPs most likely, poss EU give something slightly related like review periods, or just to say we tried now vote for the deal
Is no-deal more likely if Parliament passes a time-limited backstop amendment?
A: Yes. Clear sign we reject EU red lines, and will be seen as continuing UK failure to accept reality.
A: Yes. Clear sign we reject EU red lines, and will be seen as continuing UK failure to accept reality.
Q: Could the backstop pass if the name was changed and various other cosmetic changes applied?
A: The DUP are probably too smart to fall for that, but some Conservatives may be tempted. But ultimately Labour holds the key
A: The DUP are probably too smart to fall for that, but some Conservatives may be tempted. But ultimately Labour holds the key
Q: Would the deal pass if there were review clauses every 5 years?
A: Still difficult, the fundamental truth that a backstop cannot have an end date remains
A: Still difficult, the fundamental truth that a backstop cannot have an end date remains
Q: Why is the Irish backstop a red line that the EU will simply not give up?
A: Destroy EU reputation in at least 2 ways, by going back on a fundamental, and sacrificing a small state for a departing state. Existential threat to EU
A: Destroy EU reputation in at least 2 ways, by going back on a fundamental, and sacrificing a small state for a departing state. Existential threat to EU
Q: But I heard the EU were ready to give up the backstop to get the deal over the line?
A: There are many stories about, and you can never discount rumours, but it seems very unlikely
A: There are many stories about, and you can never discount rumours, but it seems very unlikely
Q: Is there an alternative to the backstop (apart from no-deal)?
A: Yes if the EU agreed - you could extend the Transition Period or go for EEA Plus.
A: Yes if the EU agreed - you could extend the Transition Period or go for EEA Plus.
Q: Does voting for the no-deal amendment mean there will be no-Brexit?
A: Probably not. It would increase the incentive for Brexiteers to support the PM's deal as the best they could get. Then all eyes on potential Labour waverers.
A: Probably not. It would increase the incentive for Brexiteers to support the PM's deal as the best they could get. Then all eyes on potential Labour waverers.
Q: Could the time limited backstop amendment passing make no Brexit more likely?
A: Possibly marginally. If the PM's deal failed and there was a choice between no-deal and no-Brexit the outcome is very hard to predict.
A: Possibly marginally. If the PM's deal failed and there was a choice between no-deal and no-Brexit the outcome is very hard to predict.
Q: Could the backstop be limited by [name event e.g. new EU treaty]?
A: Probably not, same EU problem applies
A: Probably not, same EU problem applies
Q: But why can Ireland not contemplate a time limited backstop?
A: Trust. Or to put it another way, the absolute lack of trust in the UK Parliament who have spent 2 years claiming the problem isn't real, Ireland is too small etc. And to bind in the EU.
A: Trust. Or to put it another way, the absolute lack of trust in the UK Parliament who have spent 2 years claiming the problem isn't real, Ireland is too small etc. And to bind in the EU.
Q: Would going back to the original Northern Ireland only backstop help?
A: No, even worse for chances of getting DUP and ERG support.
A: No, even worse for chances of getting DUP and ERG support.
