,
24 tweets,
9 min read
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1/
When the news of $TSLA possibly using non-Pana batteries at their Shanghai Nanofactory came out, I tweeted that I'll have a recap in "4d20hrs".
$TSLAQ #TSLishen
When the news of $TSLA possibly using non-Pana batteries at their Shanghai Nanofactory came out, I tweeted that I'll have a recap in "4d20hrs".
$TSLAQ #TSLishen
2/
It was a joke, but @TSLAQpodcast brought it up during his interview w/ @phoennix10, so now, I "have to" do something. (It was a 420 joke TQ!)
Oh well, here it is.
Just how I see the situation based on US/JPN media reporting & some reading.
podbean.com/media/share/pb…
It was a joke, but @TSLAQpodcast brought it up during his interview w/ @phoennix10, so now, I "have to" do something. (It was a 420 joke TQ!)
Oh well, here it is.
Just how I see the situation based on US/JPN media reporting & some reading.
podbean.com/media/share/pb…
3/
On the Tesla side, it only took a few hours to know Tesla just talked to Lishen & that was it.
@EVdefender summarized it nicely here. Hilariously fast backtracking right there.
On the Tesla side, it only took a few hours to know Tesla just talked to Lishen & that was it.
@EVdefender summarized it nicely here. Hilariously fast backtracking right there.
4/
Not much to add, really. Lishen is big enough & already makes 21700 cells (the type used in Mod 3), so they can ramp up the production quickly if needed. They (& others) probably want Tesla to put up some money & can clearly wait until something goes up in the swamp.
Not much to add, really. Lishen is big enough & already makes 21700 cells (the type used in Mod 3), so they can ramp up the production quickly if needed. They (& others) probably want Tesla to put up some money & can clearly wait until something goes up in the swamp.
5/
On the Pana side, it was just a formality. The news that Pana & Toyota were close to formalizing the deal was already out in Japanese media about a month ago.
On the Pana side, it was just a formality. The news that Pana & Toyota were close to formalizing the deal was already out in Japanese media about a month ago.
6/
They were working on the deal for a year. They announced it in Dec. '17. @BertelSchmitt knew what was going on immediately, & wrote about what it means to Pana, Toyota & Tesla. 🎯
dailykanban.com/2017/12/thats-…
They were working on the deal for a year. They announced it in Dec. '17. @BertelSchmitt knew what was going on immediately, & wrote about what it means to Pana, Toyota & Tesla. 🎯
dailykanban.com/2017/12/thats-…
7/
If you haven't paid much attention to Pana/Toyota in the past, this is what you may think of as the current situation, but that's prob. misleading.
If you haven't paid much attention to Pana/Toyota in the past, this is what you may think of as the current situation, but that's prob. misleading.
8/
Pana & Toyota have been close for a long time. For historical background, pls. take a look at my pinned tweet.
Pana & Toyota have been close for a long time. For historical background, pls. take a look at my pinned tweet.
9/
For more recent stuff, you just need to look at PEVE, the battery JV b/w them. Yep, they have a factory near Shanghai, making battery etc. for hybrids sold in China.
peve.jp/en/corpolate/h…
For more recent stuff, you just need to look at PEVE, the battery JV b/w them. Yep, they have a factory near Shanghai, making battery etc. for hybrids sold in China.
peve.jp/en/corpolate/h…
10/
Pana wanted more auto battery business, but Toyota was a bit reluctant because they were/are the leading company in hybrids. For more details, I talked about it here.
Pana wanted more auto battery business, but Toyota was a bit reluctant because they were/are the leading company in hybrids. For more details, I talked about it here.
11/
Toyota also seems to be making good progress on solid state battery:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Toyota also seems to be making good progress on solid state battery:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
13/
Pana also didn't want to be too dependent on Toyota. Pana is a big & prideful company w/ 100+yr history, despite their recent struggle. They also needed a positive growth story when they started up the relationship w/ Telsa.
Pana also didn't want to be too dependent on Toyota. Pana is a big & prideful company w/ 100+yr history, despite their recent struggle. They also needed a positive growth story when they started up the relationship w/ Telsa.
14/
Back then, their business was a mess; about to post huge losses w/ no clear path for the future.
So Pana had a brief fling w/ Tesla (O.K., go make Amber Heard jokes here).
Back then, their business was a mess; about to post huge losses w/ no clear path for the future.
So Pana had a brief fling w/ Tesla (O.K., go make Amber Heard jokes here).
15/
But "Tesla risk" (a term often used in JPN media) was real. Pana wanted a more reliable partner, the type you can introduce to your parents. So Pana & Toyota got back together. Now, (almost) happily married.
But "Tesla risk" (a term often used in JPN media) was real. Pana wanted a more reliable partner, the type you can introduce to your parents. So Pana & Toyota got back together. Now, (almost) happily married.
16/
The deal is Toyota 51%, Pana 49%. Pana will transfer their 5 battery factories, including 1 in Dailan, China, to this JV. They'll keep some basic R&D, and their cylindrical battery business (i.e. Tesla). This JV is for prismatic cells.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin…
The deal is Toyota 51%, Pana 49%. Pana will transfer their 5 battery factories, including 1 in Dailan, China, to this JV. They'll keep some basic R&D, and their cylindrical battery business (i.e. Tesla). This JV is for prismatic cells.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busin…
17/
Pana won't get to keep all the benefit of likely growth in BEVs to themselves, but w/ Subaru, Mazda & likely Suzuki joining, it was clearly a good deal for them. They're also wooing Honda. That's 1/5 of world-wide auto industry!
Pana won't get to keep all the benefit of likely growth in BEVs to themselves, but w/ Subaru, Mazda & likely Suzuki joining, it was clearly a good deal for them. They're also wooing Honda. That's 1/5 of world-wide auto industry!
18/
What Pana seems to get instead is the ability to sell their batteries to those outside the alliance. Apparently, Pana will be responsible for that part of business.
What Pana seems to get instead is the ability to sell their batteries to those outside the alliance. Apparently, Pana will be responsible for that part of business.
19/
In the end, it all turned out as expected. Pana will have more & more bargaining power w/ Tesla, so it's bullish for Pana & indirectly bearish for Tesla. Pana won't need Tesla in a few years.
/fin
In the end, it all turned out as expected. Pana will have more & more bargaining power w/ Tesla, so it's bullish for Pana & indirectly bearish for Tesla. Pana won't need Tesla in a few years.
/fin
bonus:
Why is Suzuki close to Toyota?
Not only both are from the same region (Chubu area, same for Honda & Yamaha), but also Toyota helped Suzuki on a couple of important occasions in the past.
Why is Suzuki close to Toyota?
Not only both are from the same region (Chubu area, same for Honda & Yamaha), but also Toyota helped Suzuki on a couple of important occasions in the past.
1st was in 1950's when Suzuki started selling motorcycles. Toyota Tsusho, the trading arm of Toyota Group, became the dealer. This, despite Toyota was selling their own motorcycles. Suzuki didn't have a dealership network then, so that's how Suzuki's motorcycle business started.
2nd came in 1970's when emission regulations tightened up. Suzuki fell behind in developing small 4-stroke engines. Toyota, which partially owned Daihatsu, offered a Daihatsu engine to be used in Suzuki cars.
W/o this, Suzuki's car business was in real danger of going away. The car was Suzuki Fronte 7-S, a derivative of which became Alto/Maruti 800, one of the best-selling little cars ever.
Suzuki & Toyota has been in a limited alliance (mostly wrt R&D) for a couple of yrs. Although not much has come of it yet beyond selling each others vehicles. Suzuki joining the battery JV may become a big part of this alliance.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india…
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india…
