Thread by @ritholtz

1/ Yesterday, Starbucks founder Howard Shultz told @60Minutes he is considering running for President as an independent 3rd party candidate.

A quick reminder about 3rd party candidates, and what their impact has been during presidential campaigns over the past 37 years.

2/ In 2000, Ralph Nader won 2,882,955 votes (2.74%), helping to make George W. Bush President.

Nader took 1.63% of votes in Florida; Bush won the state by just .05% -- and the presidency. (Did any Nader policies get implemented because of his run?)

3/ In 2016, Jill Stein & Gary Johnson ran as independents. But for their campaigns, it is likely that, Trump would not be have won the Presidency.

If you doubt that just look at the numbers.

The 2016 Electoral College final = 304 to 227

4/ Trump's 2016 margin of victory in Florida was 112,911 - 1.2%.

Stein & Johnson won 270,026 votes in Florida - Johnson 2.2%, Stein 0.68%. Their margin gave Trump Florida's 29 Electoral College votes.

Minus Florida, it is 275 to 256, not enough to change the outcome alone.

5/ What about Michigan (16 electoral votes) Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), the trio of states that helped Trump win the White House?

6/ Michigan and its 16 electoral votes was won by Trump with 47.50% of the total votes vs Clinton's 47.27%

The difference was a mere 10,704.

Meanwhile, Johnson grabbed 172,136 or 3.59%, and Stein took 51,463 for 1.07% of the vote.

7/ What about Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes ?

Johnson took 146,715 or 2.38%, and Stein garnered 49,941 or 0.81%

Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.72% - a mere 44,292 votes out of more than six million cast -- far less than 3rd party votes.

8/ Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes went to Trump after his margin of victory was 22,748 -- less than 1% (47.2% to 46.5%).

Johnson won 106,674 (3.58%); Stein took 31,072 (1.04%) again, far more than the margin of victory.

9/ All told, 78,000 votes from 3 counties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan was the difference between a Trump victory and loss

10/ Don't forget Ross Perot, the Texas businessman who ran as an Independent in 1992.

He captured 18.9% of the popular vote, and zero electoral college votes

Final tally: Bill Clinton 43.0%, George H.W. Bush 37.4%. Perot siphoned votes from Bush, giving Clinton the victory.

11/ The counter-arguments are that we never know if 3rd party voters might have stayed home, or if their votes would have been split.

But thats not what polls typically reveal, nor what common sense suggests...

12/ Perot leaned right, siphoning votes from G.H.W. Bush;

The left-leaning views of Nader, Stein and Johnson, strongly imply most of the their votes came from potential anti-Trump voters.

13/ Consider 2 different approaches by potential 2020 candidates who are billionaires:

Mike Bloomberg, a long term independent, registered as a Democrat.
Howard Schultz, a long Democrat, registered as a independent.

Bloomberg understands an independent run helps Trump.

14/ In an ideal world, 3rd party candidates bring new issues to the fore and make the debate more robust.

In the real world politics of the USA, 3rd party candidates are spoilers, splitting opposition to a candidate + handing the election to the person they oppose the most.

15/ @Starbucks made Schultz wealthy, letting him fund 3rd party spoiler campaign.

His company's policies lean left, overlapping DJT resistance. If he helps re-elect Trump, I have to imagine the impact on Starbucks could be significant. (does it lasts more than a few Qs? Dunno)

16/ Final thoughts: I wish America's politics were issue focused, not personality or culture wars driven. I hate the horse race aspect of media coverage.

We have real problems that do not get addressed or only get "catch phrase" promises. We need to mature as a nation.

17/ But the reality of the modern history of 3rd party candidates is they act as giant electoral spoilers.

We have no reasons to suspect 2020 would turn out any differently

/END

I missed this one, but it says the same thing:

"Before there was Jill Stein, there was Ralph Nader. Before there was Nader, there was Ross Perot."

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