,
5 tweets,
1 min read
Read on Twitter
If Brady amendment loses due to substantial ERG opposition, but Cooper amendment passes thanks to Con soft Brexit rebels (and Lab abstentions) the most likely outcome is a softer Brexit than May's deal.
May will have more margin to support softening amendments, on basis they have majority in Commons but hardening amendments do not. EU will highlight same issue - Commons majority for softening, not for hardening.
And those pushing softer arrangements can say to wavering MPs/ministers: "Brady amendment failure proves that its softer Brexit or no deal Brexit. There is no hard Brexit deal ERG will back".
In short, I can't see any way in which this helps advance the agenda of ERG types unless:
1. Their belief that no deal can still happen turns out to be correct (Cooper amendment failing would support that) or
2. They care more abt evading responsibility than shaping Brexit deal
1. Their belief that no deal can still happen turns out to be correct (Cooper amendment failing would support that) or
2. They care more abt evading responsibility than shaping Brexit deal
One v valuable thing about Cooper & Brady amendments (assuming both voted on) is that their success or failure provides meaningful information abt what is and isn't viable in Commons, thus shaping path forward. We shld all be thankful to Dominic Grieve for that
