Thread by @tony_nog

1) history rewritten, how "No Deal" #Brexit came from nowhere to be official brexiter policy

The brexit process has given us a remarkable insight into how history can be rewritten

Everyone apparently voted for no deal brexit even though it was rarely mentioned pre referendum

2) Firstly, the Brexit sold in the referendum was "Cost free cakeism" Brexit. Vote leave might promote Norway or other versions as temporary examples but basically, it was going to be easy, we held all the cards and they needed us more than we needed them

3) it is truly *bizarre* that brexit supporters forget this.
"We knew it would be difficult/costly/disruptive" is a constant comment on Twitter

How? Because certainly no leave leader said it would be & the constant image was a £350 M bonus for the NHS

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1065648448362434560?s=20

4) similarly there's the constant "Leave were explicit about leaving the SM/CU"

This is nonsense. Leave were only explicit that there would be no cost to Brexit, we'd get everything we wanted

"We can leave the SM and get just as good a deal" is not explicit, it's just a lie

5) Once the referendum was won, we were finally able to say "OK, what does #Brexit actually look like?"

At this point it split into 3 versions, Hard & Soft joined Fantasy Brexit

Soft was SM+CU
Hard was a limited Free trade deal
Fantasy was the hangover from the campaign

6) However, and this is the important point, even here, in the months after the referendum, almost *no one* was talking about a "No deal" scenario. "Hard" brexit had a very specific meaning, additional trade barriers outside of the SM & CU as part of an orderly withdrawal

7) In this Telegraph on-line poll from September 2016, we can see soft brexit as option 1, hard brexit as option 2 and fantasy brexit as a substantial option 3

WTO rules? Crash out? None of this was being seriously discussed by Brexit leaders Then the NI border came into focus

8) NI border had barely been discussed in the referendum, when it was raised by Remain speakers it was dismissed by Leavers as more project fear

But the complexities of the GFA meant that even a limited Canada style Free Trade deal would be impossible without additional measures

9) In other words, there was no hard #Brexit available & Soft Brexit was hated by brexit leaders - this only left fantasy Brexit

"we will get everything we want, the EU will cave on a deal" became
"we don't need a trade deal, we can just leave with no deal and go on WTO"

10) A delicious irony of the Brexit movement is that we're apparently leaving to get new trade deals yet we don't apparently need a trade deal for 60% of our trade (crashing out loses us the 53 trade deals the EU already has)

11) Essentially, Hard Brexit is not possible because of NI border (and frankly the incompetence of Brexit leaders which is profound and fundamental), there are no other answers arising so the Brexit leaders have turned in desperation to "No Deal"

https://twitter.com/tony_nog/status/1064809576690794496

12) and this is where it gets really, *really* weird - #Brexit supporters have picked this up and are convincing themselves that No Deal/WTO rules/Crash out was *what they always wanted*, what they actually voted for in 2016

They've bought it, they've rewritten their memories

13) despite having no knowledge of WTO in 2016 (let's face it, how many of us knew anything about WTO even now, much less 3 years ago) Leave supporters are now saying with confidence, "I'm happy with no deal, WTO all the way, its what I wanted"

14) and they're saying this with the same confidence that many of them had when they said "they need us more than we need them, we'll get a great deal"

The Brexit leaders have dropped Fantasy & hard Brexit for No deal Brexit, and their followers have swallowed the switch

15) Hard Brexit and No Deal are *not* the same and never were
Hard Brexit is costly, no deal is lunacy
Because Hard Brexit is beyond the capacity of Brexit Leaders to define, they've grabbed at No Deal - it's not a strategy, it's desperation
end/

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