Thread by @nick_gutteridge

All star Brexit cast @epc_eu in Brussels today including Commission deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand and former UK ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers. Will post any good quotes/insights below.

Sabine Weyand: 'There’s no point beating about the bush - the Agreement was defeated with a 2/3 majority in the HoC. That’s a crushing defeat by any standards. It’s quite a challenge to see how you can construct out of the diversity of opposition a positive majority for a deal.'

Weyand: 'We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get Agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to a stable majority to ensure the ratification. That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU - that's finished.'

Weyand: 'We’re not going to reopen the Agreement. The result of the negotiation has been very much shaped by the UK negotiators, much more than they actually get credit for. This is a bit like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The backstop was very much shaped by UK.'

Weyand on amendments to unilaterally leave/time-limit backstop: 'It feels like Groundhog Day. None of this is new. This has been extensively discussed at the negotiating table amongst the EU27. EU27 were unanimous a time limit to the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop.'

Weyand says 'our impression is discussion is much more about the future of the country & the future of the UK-EU relationship than about the content of the WA'. To laughs she adds: 'In fact much of the conversation is uninhibited by any knowledge of what is actually in the WA.'

Weyand wraps up opening remarks by warning: 'There’s a very high risk of a crash out not by design, but by accident. Perhaps by the design of Article 50, but not by policymakers.'

IFG's @jillongovt says May has 'managed to pull off the quite singular feat' of losing a Brexit Sec because backstop implies a permanent Customs Union, but also being denounced by Labour MPs for failing to provide a permanent Customs Union. Says she's in a 'lose-lose' position.

Jill says there's a 'vicious briefing war' playing out between advocates of a 2nd referendum and the Norway option. She says: 'If you think you have the eyes on the prize of remaining the last thing you want is for a majority to crystallise around a soft form of Brexit.'

Jill concludes: 'The final landing point if we get through the Withdrawal Agreement is still unclear. That’s why you’ll see more people in the UK saying this is too difficult, shall we go for a Citizens’ Assembly to try and tell the politicians what Leave means.'

Sir Ivan kicks off his remarks with a good dose of honesty. Says he doesn't know what will happen next and 'anyone who tells you they have the faintest clue what’s going to happen next in the Commons is usually lying'.

Sir Ivan says 'level of understanding' amongst even best briefed MPs of what's in deal is 'strikingly low'. Explains: 'There’s an enormous gap between what the executive understands, what the people at the core of the negotiations understand & what the legislature understands.'

Sir Ivan says there will be an 'inevitable technical extension' of Article 50. But points out if it's 3 months or less EU leaders will be worried they're just going to have to renew it and if it's longer UK must hold EU elections which is 'highly problematic'.

Sir Ivan adds May faces a 'credibility issue' with EU leaders having been 'thumped' in the meaningful vote. He adds that ideally capitals will want to see 'real, convincing evidence' that a deal can get through to green light such an extension.

Sir Ivan concludes: 'I’ve always thought the crisis would have to go to the wire and it will intensify right to the end game. But when leaders have to look over the abyss they'll have to weigh up what the alternatives are, whether we really want to jump together into the abyss.'

.@tconnellyRTE says Irish Govt has 'felt pressure like they’ve not felt before' since Commission outburst last week over no deal creating a hard border. He says: 'It forced them into confronting things that they haven’t really had to say before. There's a lot more pressure now.'

Connelly adds EU leaders get need to hold line on backstop but 'closer we get to no deal you could get pressure from bottom up' i.e industry groups/trade unions in EU states over 'arcane Irish situation we don’t really understand'. Says: 'That [unity] may not hold at grassroots.'

‼️Weyand: 'You cannot lead a negotiation like that in secrecy. We've seen on UK side the fact this was handled in a very small circle and there was no info about all the things that were tried in the negotiations is now a big handicap.' ‼️

Weyand on Max Fac: 'We looked at every border on this earth, every border EU has with a 3rd country - there’s simply no way you can do away with checks & controls. The negotiators have not been able to explain them to us and that’s not their fault, it’s because they don’t exist.'

Weyand on Article 50 extension: 'What's very clear is [leaders] will require certain info...the purpose of an extension & 27 will want to be reassured that at the end of an extension we have clarity. Idea of going into serial extensions really isn’t very popular in the EU27.'

Sir Ivan says it's now likely UK will understand EU better from the outside than it ever did inside. 'It’s been a huge learning curve for senior bureaucrats who’ve never really touched the EU. If that’s true inside the executive just imagine what it’s like in the legislature.'

Sir Ivan agrees with Weyand that PM hasn't 'articulated' to her party or MPs how she came to decisions she did in the negotiations, particularly over the backstop. He says he doesn't think she's going to return to the NI only backstop of the Spring as UK-wide was always her plan.

Weyand: 'If we were to lose the Withdrawal Agreement we’d lose the one operational solution to the Irish border conundrum but we’d be stuck with the same scenario. So you could imagine a no deal scenario with the backstop being discussed.'

Weyand on no deal fallout: 'We think we can handle it. I’m less sure about UK side. For us it’s about EU-UK trade relationship & disruption to supply chains. For UK no deal would mean part of regulatory & supervisory structure of economy breaks away - a much bigger challenge.'

Weyand: 'I still think the Political Declaration is a work of art because it bridges the unbridgeable and it leaves choices open. It doesn’t pretend to be able to make choices that have not been made in the UK. That’s the area where we do have room for manoeuvre.'

Sir Ivan: 'There’s no comfortable future outside the EU and there was no comfortable future inside the EU. We were seeking a Sui Generis unique place just outside the perimeter fence, only just inside the Single Market and Customs Union but not really part of anything else.'

Sir Ivan carries on: 'Cameron’s was the last attempt to entrench that British exceptionalism in the EU. Had the public ever been given a vote on successive treaty changes we have to be clear and honest, they’d have voted against them so it was coming to a crunch.'

Sir Ivan says 3rd country Customs Union model is 'riddled with problems & wouldn’t last long'. Adds 'there isn’t any sustainable solution that’s going to last very long' available now. Concludes there 'needs to be more hard thinking' within EU about future relations with UK.

Weyand: 'We’re in a situation where we’re simultaneously accused of trying to trap UK in a closer relationship than they want and of pushing UK away because we want to punish them. We need to wait for clarity so we can have a grown up discussion about where we want to take this.'

Weyand concludes: 'To end on a positive note few people would’ve believed half a year ago we’d be able to conclude negotiations successfully but we did. We overcame difficulties they were numerous and difficult but we did mange to reach an agreement. That’s no mean achievement.'

And with that we're done. Considering that event lasted three hours it breezed by surprisingly quickly - a great panel and some really good insights. ENDS