Thread by @dany_bahar

@BootsRiley Boots, this will be my last answer in an attempt to have a serious, genuine, conversation about the facts. If not for you, at least for the many that are reading. Here's a thread.

@BootsRiley 1/ I'm aware that there is a vast history of US interventions in LatAm and other regions, that have ended very badly. And I understand that the American people are weary of falling into those mistakes again. I really do.

@BootsRiley 2/ The situation in Venezuela TODAY is not one of those instances. Or at the very least, is at the very end of such list. I might be proven wrong in the future, but as of now, that's not the reading I --and many others, Venezuelans or not, who follow the events -- have.

@BootsRiley 3/ Maduro won "elections" in May 2018. I use quotes b/c few recognize those elections as free or fair. If you assume those elections were legitimate, then that's the end of the discussion, bc under those circumstances the opposition would have no claim. But the truth is different

@BootsRiley 4/ The elections weren't free nor fair. One way to see that is by looking at the abstention rates, following the call of the opposition not to participate (yes, to boycott them). Free and fair elections are not only about the day of the election but much before.

@BootsRiley 5/ If the gov't uses all of its machinery to "buy" votes with social programs (read about Carnet de la Patria) or bans candidates from running for office (or jails them and exiles them), then that should raise an eyebrow.

@BootsRiley 6/ Even if you won't publicly agreed, Venezuela stopped being a democracy some years ago. The Supreme Court is controlled by executive branch (the gov't hasn't lost a case in 20 years...) and its members were elected in a shady way (can expand more on this if you want).

@BootsRiley 7/ Democracy is not only about elections, but about independence of powers and protection of minorities, as well as free press / free speech and others. Those elements are missing in Venezuela. I'm not making this up. Newspapers and TV/Radios have been closed down.

@BootsRiley 8/ Politicians are often jailed without trial. Many people have been exiled by the regime. Whether you think the opposition is "right wing" or not (in fact, that's inaccurate, b/c Juan Guado's party is in the Socialist Int'l ) that doesn't mean they have to be persecuted.

@BootsRiley 9/ Add to that the vast humanitarian crisis the country is immersed into, which Maduro himself has sort-of recognized. This is a result of 20 years of bad economic policies. Chavez enjoyed from the longest and largest oil boom in the history of the country.

@BootsRiley 10/ At the time (mid 2000s) enjoying from high oil prices resulted in many social programs and lowered poverty rates. But this money was all used in consumption and not investment. All was imported. The private sector struggled with price controls and regulations.

@BootsRiley 11/ As it happened many times in many countries, when things are good (price of oil is high) you borrow more money. And so they did. Borrowed and borrowed, and the external debt of the country exploded. This is the external debt in terms of exports. See how it exploded.

@BootsRiley 12/ When prices of oil dropped in 2014, the country was highly indebted and had no one else to borrow from because that's how market works (if you owe a lot of money to a lot of people, no one will give you more). That really exacerbated the crisis.

@BootsRiley 13/ Venezuela had less income from oil, had a huge debt to repay, and therefore had to cut on imports. That's why there was scarcity of food, medicines, etc, because everything was imported. The private sector, as said, under all the controls, could not produce locally.

@BootsRiley 14/ But the gov't had a lot of expenditures. And so they decided to "create" money, by printing it. That lead to the hyperinflation we have today of over 1.000.000%. That means that your salary and savings are worth a third at the end of the month than at the beginning of it.

@BootsRiley 15/ Naturally, something I hope you can acknowledge, this hurts the poor THE MOST. When there is not enough food on shelves, and prices are controlled, black market emerges. The poor cannot pay the black market price of food and medicines. Only the rich can.

@BootsRiley 16/ Guess what? The poor are A LOT OF PEOPLE. Poverty rates went up to 87% in Venezuela. 9 out of 10 people are poor. That's higher than when Chavez took power in 1999. Now, add to this the lack of freedoms , generalized violence (more homicides in Vzla than in Iraq).

@BootsRiley 17/ What do you get? A refugee crisis. 3.3 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2015. I've been to the border with Colombia several times. I've met them and talked to them. Trust me, they were fleeing for their lives.

@BootsRiley 18/ Now, about what happened this week. The elections that most Venezuelan people did not recognize (see abstention numbers) were to elect the president for 2019-2025. If the elections weren't valid, then there is NO president-elect.

@BootsRiley 19/ If there is NO president-elect, then the Venezuelan constitution of 1999 (designed by Chavez, BTW) states in its article 233 that the head of the National Assembly MUST (not can, may, but must) assume as Interim President and call for elections.

@BootsRiley 20/ The National Assembly was elected in 2015. The opposition won by a landslide despite the unfair advantage of the government. They received 2/3 of the spots. But guess what?

@BootsRiley 21/ Ever since, Maduro used the loyal-to-him Supreme Court to invalidate *every* single thing the National Assembly did. It even created a parallel assembly in 2017 following the protests in the streets, to basically do as he wishes under the impression that there is democracy.

@BootsRiley 22/ The National Assembly thrived until today, powerless, but was in a position to make a bold move: to follow article 233 of the constitution, and under that bases, Juan Guaido was sworn in as Interim President.

@BootsRiley 23/ Minutes later not only the US, but Canada (left wing govt), Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador (left wing gov't), Peru, Paraguay, Costa Rica, Panama, etc. recognized the move as legitimate and Guaido as the president.

@BootsRiley 24/ That's not the type of "interventionism" you are so wary about (which I respect). There is no violence, there's no troops on the ground, there is no "dictating" what to do. It was a move by the Venezuelan opposition strongly supported by most of the Venezuelan people.

@BootsRiley 25/ Can things could have be done more "legit", like of having President Guaido going through a more formal ceremony of swearing in instead of doing it on the streets in front of the crowds? Maybe. But that doesn't change the fact that the move was constitutional.

@BootsRiley 26/ Again, it all comes down to whether you accept or not May 2018 Elections as legitimate. I certainly dont, and most Venezuelans dont, neither the int'l community. If you want to have an evidence-based convo about that, I'd be happy to.

@BootsRiley 27/ I understand that it is more sexy and convenient to say "intervention" instead of explaining a complex situation in ~30 tweets, and on the way, insult those who disagree with you as right wing fanatics. But right wing I am not, though that is irrelevant.

@BootsRiley 28/ The situation is very complex, and we hope (I certainly do) things will stabilize without any violence. I dont want any intervention from anyone. This is up to the Venezuelan people. But the truth is that Venezuelans live under a government of the few oppressing the many.

@BootsRiley 29/ And the int'l community has taken sides with those who are following the constitution of Venezuela under the National Assembly. Is the opposition perfect? They are not. Have they made mistakes? Certainly. But they are acting under the constitution.

@BootsRiley 30/ In Venezuela poor people are suffering more than anyone, under a corrupt regime that is enriching itself and staying in power by force. I consider myself a progressive, and therefore I stand against oppression of the poor, which this time happens to be done by left wing govt

@BootsRiley 31/ My hope is that this will be resolved sooner rather than later, without violence. I would certainly condemn any violence, ALL violence. But Venezuelans are ready to regain democracy and freedom, and progressives should appreciate that.

@BootsRiley 32 and last/ I hope *some* people who have been reading this appreciate a perspective on this complex situation. You might not agree. But hope you can put insults aside and understand that this is not about the US being interventionists or not, but about the Venezuelan people.