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Germany is being celebrated for this decision - and it's better than the alternative (Germany has fastidiously protected coal for decades, and promoted lignite well into the 2010s). But I find this news more depressing than hope-generating 1/
Assume Germany actually meets its 2038 deadline (and I am sceptical it won't be pushed back). That means there won't be serious pressure on Poland, etc. for at least another 15 years. The amount of of global carbon budget getting eaten up in the interim is staggering. 2/
Consider all the previous forks in the road Germany didn't take: it shielded coal from its eco-tax regime until an EU court forced coal to pay the same taxes as other energy sources in the mid-2000s. It included language promoting coal into coalition documents into the 2010s...3/
It chose to shutter its nuclear fleet instead of its coal fleet after Fukushima. And now it will spend staggering amounts to compensate and buy-off coal-dependent interests as part of a glacial, incremental phase-out that could easily be delayed or derailed by future gvts 4/
Let's not celebrate Germany as some green fairy-tale. It's a story of a country that has twisted itself into very slowly phasing out coal after decades of active resistance. It will take another two decades to know if they succeed - perhaps too late for climate stability 5/5
