Thread by @SamuelMarcLowe

Later today I'm going to perform a public services and tweet out what the backstop text referred to in the 'Malthouse Compromise' would translate to on the ground in NI.

Okay, the first thing to say is that this is the alternative backstop text referenced. Do have a read: img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/bf4d…

Second: I am going to suspend disbelief, and choose to accept that many things that don't exist, or would require significant negotiation, do: for example single window customs, drastically simplified rules of origin & that UK is allowed continued access to EU systems eg TRACES.

Right. As someone exporting goods to Northern Ireland under this protocol, the first thing I would notice is a drastic increase in the amount of admin. While there are zero tariffs, and simplified rules of origin ...

... I would need to pre-declare the goods I'm exporting to Ireland on a computer, or pay someone to do it for me. I would then await clearance, which under system envisioned here could be done pretty quickly.

But without inspection posts, how will they know if I'm telling the truth? This would be done using digital risk management, alongside a small percentage of random checks to keep the system honest.

The idea in this proposal is that if something seemed amiss, an inspection could either be carried out at the warehouse before I send my truck off, or at the destination point. Customs would come to me.

However, some questions remain.

How to deal with those that decide they're just not going to play ball, and ignore the new procedures? In practice this would require intelligence lead-policing and in all probability an increased frequency of random stop and search by officials.

The need for random stops and search could be reduced, and interventions made more targeted could be reduced if cameras were introduced at the border. But that would mean infrastructure.

Also, raiding warehouses behind the border in, say, South Armagh is not necessarily a more attractive proposition from a peace and stability point of view than stopping trucks at the border.

Of course, such enforcement already happens due to difference in VAT and Excise regimes between NI and Ireland, but the frequency would need to increase. Especially near the beginning, as in all likelihood lots will ignore new regime.

And let's not pretend enforcing existing measures is pain free (h/t @JP_Biz): bbc.co.uk/news/10453504

On VAT, the proposal is silent. Which is strange, as outside EU VAT will be payable on all imports to the UK (and vice versa) prior to release from customs. There are different systems available to help, but it presents a very profitable smuggling opportunity for those inclined.

Now, so far we've just discussed customs. Now for some regs.

The proposal suggests that NI and Ireland maintain the same veterinary regimes for live animals, and remain in the same biosphere. Removing need for checks on live animals at the land border.

This is not true for products of animal origin. Instead it proposes an equivalence regime. UK officials would be able to certify that the milk I am producing is fit for sale in the EU.

EU law states that any imported product of animal origin must enter the EU territory via a veterinary border inspection post; it seems hear that suggestion is both parties would agree inspections could be done either at exporter or importer premises.

But what about products imported into NI and then shipped on to Ireland? It seems to me that even if milk, for example, produced on the island can be checked behind the border, veterinary border inspection posts will still be needed for goods entering via NI from elsewhere.

And again, you hit the policing issue. How to differentiate?

Anyway, I'll leave it there for now. Can you do it without physical infrastructure? Maybe. Can you do it without a significant uptick in 'associated checks'? I don't think so. Would it still constitute a border in many peoples' minds and be disruptive? I think yes.

Could something like this be phased in and work as a component part of the future relationship? Maybe.

Does it work as an ultimate fail-safe, and insurance policy for Northern Ireland, a backstop? I think not.

I would suggest that this is the sort of thing you come up with when your starting Q is not 'How do I ensure Brexit doesn't undermine stability in NI' but rather 'How do I get around this annoying commitment to no physical infrastructure so that we can get on with signing FTAs'.