Thread by @kazweida

There's been lots of buzz about Trump's withdrawal from the INF treaty with Russia, but this #SundayMorning let's explore what it is, why it's important, and the short & long term consequences of the INF treaty.

Does withdrawal mean the kind of arms race that could signal WW 3?

(2) INF stands for Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and it's a 1987 nuclear arms-control pact with Russia. It prohibits land-based cruise or ballistic missiles (between a range of 311-3,420 miles).

nytimes.com/2019/02/01/wor…

(3) Signed by Gorbachev & Reagan after missile launches in the 80s left the world terrified of nuclear war, it mitigated concerns about "hair trigger" weapons that could hit in 10 minutes.

The agreement kept nuclear-tipped cruise missiles off the European continent for 3 decades

(4) Why did Trump withdraw from the treaty?

Well, there's been a lot of finger-pointing. The US says Russia is in violation because of 9M729, an extended-range cruise missile. Russia says the US is in violation because of Mark 41 Vertical Launch System.

nytimes.com/2019/02/02/wor…

(5) What's certain is that the INF treaty definitely needed to be renegotiated. And instead of doing that, Pompeo and company decided to threaten withdrawal and force Putin to the table before they'd exhausted diplomatic measures.

cfr.org/backgrounder/u…

(6) Putin's response has been about what you'd expect. He's stated Russia will move forward with developing all sorts of weapons banned by the INF treaty. In fact, Putin has been threatening to pull out of the treaty for the better part of a decade.

washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…

(7) Kellyanne Conway and Trump have cited the withdrawal as evidence the administration is "tough" on Russia. But nuclear proliferation experts see the US initiated withdrawal as a colossal disaster and warn it could usher in the next great arms race.

theatlantic.com/international/…

(8) What is most puzzling about this withdrawal is that Trump, who has always claimed the US should have a better relationship with Russia, has done very little in terms of diplomacy.

Trump is obliterating Reagan's legacy.

theguardian.com/world/2018/oct…

(9) According to experts, Trump is playing right into Putin's hands.

"Withdrawing without exhausting diplomatic options makes it difficult for the US to control the narrative & allows Russia to develop intermediate-range systems without restriction."

cnbc.com/2019/02/02/rus…

(10) There were lots of ways to handle renegotiating and renewing the INF treaty, and I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that Trump and his administration chose threats and bluster, and by doing so, let Putin outmaneuver them on the world stage.

Welcome to the second cold war.

(11) Thanks to @rossqsmith for the #SundayMorning thread suggestion. Come back next week, and we'll do this again.

Like these kinds of deep dives and want to keep them coming?

You can support my work here:
paypal.me/kazweida
patreon.com/kazweida