Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #INF

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Some suggest the @JoeBiden administration should abandon the #JCPOA and instead seek a treaty with Iran which is approved by 2/3 of the Senate. This is a roadmap designed to fail, and they know it.
1) First, they know that no president can get 2/3 of the Senate on board with any substantial foreign-policy issue, let alone on Iran. This is why, over the past decades, Article II Treaties have been gradually set aside in favor of Executive Agreement and political commitments.
2) In fact, whereas the United States concluded twice as many treaties as executive agreements in the first 50 years of its history, today "executive agreements comprised more than 90% of the international agreements concluded".

law.cornell.edu/constitution-c…
Read 18 tweets
Happening now: "The president deals w/the world as it is-we deal w/dictators & authoritarian regimes as they are, not as we hope them to be" US Nat'l Security Adviser @robertcobrien tells @HudsonInstitute
"We don't turn a blind eye to their conduct expecting somehow that they'll change" per @robertcobrien

"He's done the hard work of strengthening our alliances & in doing so has put substance over style, & he's been criticized for that" he adds
"We think that his actions have demonstrated that the US will no longer be a party to arrangements, organizations, int'l conventions, treaties where our sovereignty is not respected" per @robertcobrien

".. led to demonstrable results that have made the American ppl safer"
Read 15 tweets
🇺🇸🔥🚀⚔️

[MINI-HILO]

#Importante

1) 2023 es considerado por el #USArmy como el "año que lo cambiará todo". Es así porque para entonces su poder de fuego alcanzará nuevas cotas nunca antes vistas, dando paso a un nuevo paradigma. Image
2) Después de varias idas y venidas, ese año esperan tener a punto una nueva serie de capacidades que le permitan superar la desventaja puntual frente a enemigos como Rusia en cuanto a poder de fuego. Image
3) Buscan ser capaces de golpear a distancias de entre 500 y 2.000 kilómetros (alcance intermedio), con la vista puesta tanto en el teatro europeo, como en el Pacífico. Image
Read 12 tweets
My short take on @EmmanuelMacron's speech on defence and #nuclear #deterrence #dissuasion:
The baseline of the doctrine is unchanged: defensive role of NW, targeted against states' centres of power; strict sufficiency; final warning to restore deterrence; and vital interests 1/7
On that point: Macron specifies what previous presidents had already alluded to: "Let's be clear: France's vital interests now have a European dimension". I.E effort at being more open about the European role of French deterrence, while still not participating in #NATO's NPG. 2/7
Deterrence is also a necessary component of his effort to build a European strategic culture. He thus proposes "a strategic dialogue, with those European partners that are ready, on the role of French nuclear deterrence for our collective security". 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Brace yourselves, @mod_russia Final Board Meeting ("Итоговая коллегия") today.

Highly likely that crashed Su-57 was indeed a first serial aircraft, and could have been one of the major deliverable to brag about. Hope it will be discussed anyway.
Putin: 82% modern equipment in the nuclear triad.

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/7…
Deliveries of #Avangard strategic hypersonic missile system started, first regiments to begin battle duty this week.

#hyperhype
Read 17 tweets
Another "Anniversary Interview" by SRF commander Karakayev:

redstar.ru/yadernyj-shhit…

Stay tuned for a thread.

#RVSN60 #stratdela #hyperhype

1/
Lots of stuff said elsewhere over last few weeks, or even earlier.
5 ICBM launches in 2019 (3xPL, 2xKY),6 planned for 2020 (5xPL, 1x??).
KY test range modernization completed in 2019: new set of measuring and comms equipment, real-time information for Central Command Post.

2/
#NewSTART mentioned A LOT:
- ceilings as the only numbers that can be disclosed on SRF (~60% of delivery vehicles and warheads).
- ~70% of 18 annual inspections by the US are on SRF objects
- expressed hope that "common sense" will prevail with regard to US stance on extension
3/
Read 12 tweets
ADM #HarryHarris:
#PLARF "controls the 'largest & most diverse #missile force in the world, with an inventory of more than 2,000 ballistic & cruise missiles.'

...if #China were a signatory [to #INF #Treaty], 95% of its #missiles would be in violation"

andrewerickson.com/2019/08/u-s-en…
My take: #Russia wouldn’t fully honor #INF. #China wouldn’t join INF. Unilateral constraint was a losing proposition: China developed the world’s foremost force of #missiles precisely within the ranges that INF would prohibit. So this increasingly antiquated treaty had no future.
1 post-INF option for US—reach agreements w allies/partners to allow rapid introduction of missiles in various contingencies to support their defense. Even if peacetime politics precluded permanent deployment, more concerning scenarios could tip balance in favor of local support.
Read 4 tweets
1 of 3: Had productive meetings with @NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group and North Atlantic Council to discuss Russia’s continued violations of the #INF Treaty.
2 of 3: We do not intend to deploy new land-based nuclear missiles in Europe. We do not want a new arms race.
3 of 3: The #Alliance remains strongly committed to ensuring that our deterrence and defense remains credible. #WeAreNATO #DefMin
Read 3 tweets
In preview of #SOTU on national security, @POTUS expected to say, "As a candidate for President, I pledged a new approach. Great nations do not fight endless wars"
re #Syria #Afghanistan #Iraq?
As for #Iran, @POTUS expected to say in #SOTU, "We will not avert our eyes from a regime that chants Death to America and threatens genocide against the Jewish People"
.@ODNIgov Dir Dan Coats and @CIA Dir Gina Haspel entering the House Chamber at Capitol for the #SOTU
Read 62 tweets
While Russia needs to be held accountable, withdrawal from the #INFTreaty will have significant consequences for international security and geopolitics.
The full implications of taking this step at this time ought to be fully considered, including with Congress, beforehand.
The #INF Treaty covers ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles.
With its large territory in the middle of Eurasian landmass, such missiles let #Russia range targets throughout #Europe, #MiddleEast and #Asia.
For example, here's the coverage of SS-20s Moscow deployed in 1986:
Thus, the INF Treaty deprives Russia of a significant military capability, for which its size and location are strategic advantages.
Read 8 tweets
The U.S. today declares it has found Russia in material breach of the treaty and will suspend our obligations as a remedy effective in 60 days unless Russia returns to full and verifiable compliance. go.usa.gov/xPzmU
Our nations have a choice: bury our head in the sand or take commonsense action in response to Russia’s flagrant disregard of #INF. #Russia has violated since 2000’s, while U.S remained in scrupulous INF compliance. Image
#Russian violations of #INF are part of the larger pattern of Russian lawlessness on the world stage: Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, election meddling, #Skripal, and now the #Kerch Strait, to name just a few. Image
Read 4 tweets
US needs low yield nuclear weapons, @US_Stratcom Cmdr @usairforce Gen John Hyten tells #SASC hearing - "That capability's a deterrence weapon to respond the threat that #Russia in particular is portraying"
"The #Russia|n doctrine will be to use a low-yield nuclear weapon on the battlefield in case of a conventional over-match with an adversary" per Gen Hyten, citing Vladimir Putin's own words
"Our defense is deterrent capability" per @US_Stratcom's Gen Hyten, when asked about threat from #Russia #China #hypersonic missiles "We don't have any defense that could deny the deployment of such a weapon against us"
Read 16 tweets

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