Thread by @pmdfoster

So. End of a grim week for #Brexit. Everyone says ‘no deal’ is impossible right? Can’t happen? I’m not so sure. Here’s why

1/thread

Let’s start with where we are. An impasse. Quite something that best we can agree at this late stage is to “take stock” before end Feb. /2

As Donald Tusk said, there is "no breakthrough" in sight. February is now essentially a lost month..../3

May’s game is clear. To run this deep into overtime, force a concession from EU in March, isolate rump of ERG implacables, get deal over line with Labour rebels with a nod n a wink from Corbyn./4

How does that go wrong? Several reasons. First, the ‘bauble’ from the EU won’t be that great: maybe putting Tusk-Junker letters into a ‘codicil’? Think it could have been more, if May had tacked towards Labour position, but patience is wearing thin now. /5

Another reason? Because EU can’t throw @campaignforleo under bus. And see this SkyData poll. 8/10 voters want him to put backstop first. His room to move is small. /6

news.sky.com/story/sky-data…

@campaignforleo So like all baubles (think Cameron deal, think May’s all UK customs union) it arrives in London stillborn. Pre-defined as useless /7

@campaignforleo At that point, when Meaningful Vote happens, the ‘rump’ of irreconcilable Tory MPs is not sub-30, but over 60 or so/8

@campaignforleo Why? Because rebel MPs don't fear a ‘no-deal’ sufficiently; constituency inboxes are full of voters saying 'just leave' and they reckon transition will materialise./9

@campaignforleo (This is in flagrant denial of the legal realities, but the level of ignorance and complacency on this point is shocking.) /10

@campaignforleo At the same time, w/o ‘unicorns’ to fix the Irish border (Malthouse is dead) the FTA the Brexiteers crave is not happening. /11

@campaignforleo They know Mrs May's deal leads to a customs union and the high alignment Brexit to protect the UK’s constitutional integrity./12

@campaignforleo So any threat by May’s deal and a deal with Labour empty both lead to ‘Brino’. No deal is the only route to a real Brexit./13

@campaignforleo At this point, assuming that Cooper-Boles doesn’t pass next week, Tories remainers or the Labour Party leadership need to be brave /14

@campaignforleo It is ‘assumed’ they will be, vote to stop ‘no deal’ becomes a vote against ‘brexit’. Career-ending maybe for Tories /15

@campaignforleo No credit for stopping a no deal ‘disaster’, since it will never happen. And party faithful don’t believe it would be. The counter-factual is not lived. /16

@campaignforleo At the same, time attitudes hardening in Europe. They already are. No deal preparations are ramping up. The blame-game will grow./17

@campaignforleo EU thinking starts to shift against a ‘blind extension’ of Article 50 and weighs relative risks of ‘no deal’ to the future stability of the EU./18

@campaignforleo Does indulging UK and Tory party psychodrama indefinitely become more damaging than the threat of a ‘no deal’ itself? /19

@campaignforleo So perhaps after a short transition extension to get its ducks in a row, the EU does not stand in the UK’s way. /20

@campaignforleo And UK (again) underestimates the EU’s willingness to put politics and principles over economics - sticks with Ireland. Defends single market. /21

@campaignforleo I say again. This was a bad week in Brexit. The success or failure of the Cooper-Boles amendment next week is critical for momentum of next phase. /22

@campaignforleo Mrs May is ‘playing it long’, but she may find that events run beyond her limited control. Her track record in this regard is very poor. /23

@campaignforleo It probably won’t happen. But no-one should assume ‘no deal’ is impossible.

On that cheery note, good weekend all.

ENDS/24