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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
If you want to be apples-to-apples, we should probably use polls from the same pollster (Morning Consult) rather than having you cherry-pick. And their polls found little change in Republican support for Trump after the Access Hollywood tape.
Trump was at a 77/22 among Republicans in the last Morning Consult poll before the tape (bit.ly/2WGRLLT), and declined only to a 72/27 (bit.ly/2dK7p3v) in the poll they conducted immediately afterward.
The Post-ABC poll you cited was also conducted about a week after the tape was out. Which is a lot more time for voters to react. So, let's see what Northam's numbers are like later this week. But so far, based on a true apples-to-apples comparison, the numbers contradict you.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto would have an, IDK, 20-25% (?) chance to beat Cornyn? Cornyn isn't likely to be as unpopular as Cruz, and 2020 isn't likely to be as blue nationally as 2018 was. Texas is getting more purple but overall it's probably a tougher race than 2018 was.
Conversely, PredictIt gives him a 15-20% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination, conditional upon his running. And my guess is that he'd be about equally likely to end up on the ticket as the VP candidate.
He also preserves a little bit of optionality on the Senate race as he can run for POTUS and switch lanes if he wants, a la Rubio in 2016.

In sum, it's arguably in Democrats' best interest for Beto to run for Senate but it's probably in Beto's best interest to run for president.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Hi, folks. We're likely to end up with something like *20* Democratic candidates for president. Here's my argument that this is a big deal. I think people are neglecting the possibility of 🌀ChAoS🌀.
53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
What's happened in the past when fields are this large?

You've wound up with Trump, McGovern and Carter, all deeply unconventional nominees who lacked support from the party establishment.
This is also a sign that the supposed next-in-line candidates, Biden and Bernie, are weak frontrunners. They haven't been able to deter anyone else from running. Although, the chaos of a large field could ultimately be helpful to Bernie, who probably has a high floor/low ceiling.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's my analysis of how Amy Klobuchar could win the nomination: 53eig.ht/2DrU5O5
Also how she could lose it. But I think she's a pretty good candidate.
Everything about her campaign revolves around the Midwest. Electability is a big asset. So is proximity to Iowa. She's liable to run as a "beer track" candidate, drawing contrasts with more liberal "wine track" candidates from the coasts. (p.s.: Beto is on the "craft beer track")
Read 4 tweets

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Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
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TheSquigglyLine
@SquigglyLine21
@samjames67031 @resisterhood What if the “data” they are referring to was knowing that they were piggy backing Russia’s disinformation efforts. If they knew exactly who and where the Russians were targeting their efforts and they targeted the same people in the same places, voila!
@samjames67031 @resisterhood Especially if the cherry on top is just a little monkey business w/voter rolls and a recount or two in these same places. You know, just enough to give her a strinkingly small, yet consistent 1%-2% margin? Trump’s fucked. Mueller will connect all the dots.
@samjames67031 @resisterhood I think that’s what the Kennedy retirement is all about. They need the second SCOTUS seat, then they can go back to being the minority opposition, knowing the court will hold the conservative line for them for decades. They haven’t a clue how to govern and they know it.
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NotMyPresident
@ironstowe
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Signs that #Election2016 was rigged (judge for yourselves)
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2.1948 election in# Italy, #USA agencies "threw everything, into helping the Christian Democrats.

1950s, the #CIA allegedly helped the West German Christian Democrats, led by Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, to come to power.
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