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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Hi, folks. We're likely to end up with something like *20* Democratic candidates for president. Here's my argument that this is a big deal. I think people are neglecting the possibility of 🌀ChAoS🌀.
53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
What's happened in the past when fields are this large?

You've wound up with Trump, McGovern and Carter, all deeply unconventional nominees who lacked support from the party establishment.
This is also a sign that the supposed next-in-line candidates, Biden and Bernie, are weak frontrunners. They haven't been able to deter anyone else from running. Although, the chaos of a large field could ultimately be helpful to Bernie, who probably has a high floor/low ceiling.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Booker 53
Klobuchar 39
Harris 38
Sanders 18
Warren 17
Castro 12
Biden 6
Delaney 6
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorseme…
That's right, folks: We've started tracking **endorsements** again in 2020.

Not just governors and members of Congress this time, but: Mayors! State legislative leaders! DNC members! And more! Everyone gets an endorsement!

See an endorsement we've missed? Drop us a line.
So far, Booker, Klobuchar and Harris have the most endorsements, but they're almost all from people within their state. In other words, it's very early. It's interesting who *isn't* getting endorsed, though. Gillibrand doesn't have any. Bernie has more than Warren.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
With Beto, more so than any other Democratic candidate, I'd be curious how his metrics move within the **first few weeks** after his announcement. Does he surge in the polls? Get a bunch of money? Endorsements? Staff? Media attention?
Obviously, *all* Democrats want that stuff. But I see the attachment to Beto as being more…not quite sure how to put it…momentum-driven and emotional than for most of the other Dems. He's certainly not the most well-credentialed candidate or the deepest thinker about policy.
So if he "clicks" — if he's a top-tier candidate — we'd probably know it sooner rather than later. That's not to say he'd be completely out of the running if he didn't get that initial surge, but it would be as more of a 2nd- or 3rd-tier candidate IMO.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If [Candidate X] would increase the Democrats' chances of winning the presidency by say 2 percentage points, but increase the chance of winning **one Senate seat** by say 10 percent, Democrats should strongly prefer them to run for president, not Senate.
Especially since a strong presidential candidate would tend to produce coattails up and down the ballot that would help Democrats in literally every other race.
The only candidate for whom this discussion is really even worth having is for Sherrod Brown, who would literally cost the Democrats a Senate seat (although only for 2 years) if he became POTUS/VPOUTS. With everyone else, it's a rounding error.
Read 3 tweets

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Darwin BondGraham
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Here's a full recap of what happened in Contra Costa Superior Court today, where five police unions and a sheriffs deputies union attempted to obtain a preliminary injunction to block release of police misconduct records under the new #SB1421 law.
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Aleix Clarió 👨‍💻🎗
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40Head ❌
@40_head
1. @americanlll @Dina1trump @MastersShelby @DIXIEDOODLE12 @DonaldJTrumpJr @RealEyeTheSpy @O_IrishT @IBaFlyGuy @RealJamesWoods @prayingmedic @PatriotPlaceATX @qanon76 @WeAreOne_Q

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Anthony Breznican
@Breznican
Yesterday, @BarackObama came to California to campaign on behalf of Democratic congressional candidates. I joined a group of @KatieHill4CA supporters and volunteers at the event.

Surprisingly, it was some Republicans who stole the show.

Here's what the day was like...
1/
Obama was speaking at the Anaheim convention center, which has a lot of memories for me. Back in 2015, I got to moderate The Force Awakens panel here where they revealed the “Chewie, we’re home” trailer. So now I have TWO very happy memories of this place.
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Part of the fun was actually hanging around with other @KatieHill4CA volunteers, putting a name and a story to the faces we see only briefly at town halls or canvasing events. There were city council candidates @SmithForSC & @bretthaddock, among other election hopefuls.
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Amanda Marcotte
@AmandaMarcotte
Folks, don’t buy the Melania-loves-LeBron story. This is an old school Republican tactic of using the wife to soften the husband. The Bushes did it by “leaking” that their wives are pro-choice. McCain’s wife made a point of disagreeing with him on gay rights.
The idea is to minimize the ugly realities of bigotry. The implicit narrative is, “See, these two can disagree about whether bigotry is wrong, but at the end of the day, they still sleep in the same bed. So it’s no big deal!"
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sᴛᴀʀᴛᴜᴘ ᴅᴀᴇᴍᴏɴ
@startupdaemon
1) There’s a lot of BS about @nntaleb’s Black Swan, antifragility & skin in da game. Let’s take the gloves off and get into trouble.
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Can you get it?
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