, 11 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Okay here's a mind map of the Brexit endgame, with an emphasis on the challenges for Labour... 1/ If the EU ditches Ireland over backstop we get May's WA and a hard Brexit. Game over. But...
2/ If May sticks to No Deal/Ticking clock the *main danger* is a group of 50+ rightwing/centrist Labour MPs panic and vote for any deal on offer. The weak whipping operation by Labour means this is a serious possibility and Labour members need to mobilise to stop it... however...
3/ There is also a possibility that May accepts dynamic alignment with EEA over labour market rules but not the Customs Union. This, too, sparks a rightwing Labour revolt in favour of May's deal. Less likely but dangerous....
4/ It's possible that May switches to the Labour Brexit plan, causing an ERG split, and then the Labour front bench backs that deal. That's a route to Brexit and though dire, it it accords with Labour policy. 12+ Labour MPs would join Libdems & Labour would haemorrage members...
5/ But there are still routes to Remain, #FinalSay referendum and Norway+. May could, as @Peston suggests, hold indicative votes and Norway+ could win. If nothing wins she faces a snap election...
6/ In a snap election Labour has to pledge Remain in its manifesto. Its own members will not campaign for the programme of the right. However I understand unions pushing for putting CU+EEA alignment in manifesto...
6a/ The fallback for the Labour internationalist left would be to demand that any deal done is put to a referendum, as per the September composite and Labour 29/1/19 amendment. That might mobilise enough Labour voters to win...
7/ It's also possible, but unlikely, that May calls a second referendum to avoid a snap election. I would expect a 55-60% vote for Remain, as the No Deal mania of the plebeian right would suppress the Leave vote.
8/ If I am right the Labour left/ Momentum and the internationalist trade union activists have to demand a) Withdraw whip from Labour MPs voting to facilitate May's Brexit b) Labour whips to enforce conference policy c) A special conference to decide the Manifesto position
9/9 I have no problem if Corbyn persuades May to do "Brexit in name only", split the Tories and lose a few Blairite MPs and councillors in the process. Labour would still be obliged to demand/allow a second referendum on any deal done, with Remain on ballot.
10/9 - I should add - all the above based on discussions with sources close to the action on both sides in last 24 hours. Its as clear/honest a picture of the options as you will get.
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