Thread by @edubridge_ng

"If you're not turned onto Politics, Politics will turn on you" - Ralph Nader.

Today on #SwotSunday, we examine the "Economic Impact of 2019 Elections" even in the face of postponement by INEC Chairman.

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In a few days, Nigerians will make the vital decision of who to lead the country for the next four years. As consequential as this decision is, uncertainties climax the country’s political environment as to who the next commander in chief will be.

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73 candidates are vying for the number one seat. The race is however generally believed to be keenly contested between the reigning @APCNigeria candidate; President Buhari & former VP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for @OfficialPDPNig.

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Political uncertainty over time has proven to naturally scare investors away as the going concern of their investments is often threatened, being a direct consequence of power change.

#NigeriaDecides2019 #SWOTSUNDAY "Economic impact of 2019 Elections"

The political terrain recently has further aggravated this in the minds of the foreign investors towards investing in Nigeria. This is however believed to be dependent on the body language of the president and his perception of both the local and international communities.

@MBuhari ’s administration of the last four years has been tagged an anti-corrupt one with various antigraft wars, though, his body language perceived as anti-business by most foreign and local investors e.g. tax penalties of a telecom giant & some other international banks.

The increased poverty rate, alleged humans, social & political aggression and the disconnect within tribes is one of the songs sung by the opposition against him.

On the other hand, the administration had been seen as infrastructure conscious one with some evident projects.

@atiku is business savvy & is believed to attract various foreign investors and economic variable perceived to improve should be elected as the next Nigerian President. However, his alleged corruption history is tainting his personality as a good fit for Nigeria’s presidency.

From an economist’s point of view (though mostly applicable in more advanced countries), one of the determinants of what election results will largely depend on the direction of changes in economic fundamentals such as FPI&FDI, capital market, GDP growth rate, foreign reserves...

If all the mentioned variables move in a favourable direction, it may depict confidence of the electorate and international world in the incumbent while otherwise may depict lack of confidence in the incumbent.

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Much growth isn’t expected in the election year; however, pre-election economic variables goes a long way in telling what the post-election variables will look like. The following variables may, however, be considered
GDP:

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The GDP report of the Q4 2018 recently issued by the NBS showed an increase. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.38% in real terms amidst election uncertainties. The Q4 growth performance implies that realGDP grew at an annual growth rate of 1.93% in 2018, compared to 0.82% recorded in 2017

The growth was accounted for by The Oil sector which contributed 7.06% to real GDP in Q4 2018 and The Non-Oil sector contributed 92.94% to real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018, slightly higher than the 92.65% seen in Q4 2017.

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A simple analysis of this may be that the country’s productive capacity has improved in comparison to the population most especially in the non-oil sector. This depicts that the economy has been well diversified.

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This happening very close to the election can be taken as good news to the current presidency as it can be termed as a positive perception of the economy.

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Stock market: Referring to NSE ASI, the stocks across all sectors have been performing positively and gains have been recorded over time, nonetheless, the election is fast approaching.

As at the close of business on Wednesday 13th February 2019, the Nigerian stock exchange rose by 2.14% as investors’ sentiments strengthened despite the political uncertainty surrounding the 2019 presidential election.

Consequently, the year-to-date gain of the NSE ASI increased to 3.28%. This may signal some level of confidence in the Buhari led administration and the confidence of investors in the country for better performance should the president be reelected.

The GDP report also gives a section for the capital importation. Is his recorded that as of Q4 of 2018, 70% of the capital imported were from foreign portfolio investment

Foreign Reserve: Though the foreign reserve experienced a sharp fall in the early part of 2018, the reserve has been experiencing an increase in the past couple of months.

This is believed to be the function of both increasing prices of crude oil as we as increasing production qty and very high capital inflow through the FPI.

The aftermath of election: Considering the pre-election realities, analysts forecast the election to experience a considerable growth irrespective of who becomes the next president. However, the policies adopted by the government will determine how soon the economy will bounce.