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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
"Our holdings [are] an assembly of companies that we partly own and that, on a weighted basis, are earning about 20% on the net tangible equity capital required to run their businesses... without employing excessive levels of debt." 2019 BTK Letter sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/c…
"Viewed as a group, these [Berkshire] businesses earned pre-tax income in 2018 of $20.8 billion, a 24% increase over 2017. Acquisitions we made in 2018 delivered only a trivial amount of that gain." "Our job is to put the money retained to good use..." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
The size of the Berkshire portfolio is massive. Perfection is never possible nor is it necessary. "When you get a seamless web of deserved trust, you get enormous efficiencies. … Every once in a while, it doesn’t work..." But gains greatly outweigh costs. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
There is no advertiser more relentless in trying to sell to me than the Shen Yun classical Chinese dance and music business. They are relentless advertisers and use every available marketing approach. Their sales and marketing budget must be massive. Or maybe they just like me.
"Shenyun" performance is a tool of the cult and anti-China propaganda. Clearly, "Shen yun" is not a cultural performance at all but a political tool of "Falun Gong" to preach cult messages" china-embassy.org/eng/xglj/flgzx/

ARPU of a cult member must be high due to the very high CAC!
Decades of experience with unit economics makes me think about everything that must generate cash to survive as a set of unit economics (e.g., hotdog stand, cult, restaurant). It's a mental model. Even if revenue is transactional you can estimate ARPU, CAC, GM and churn.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ I tried to buy a hamburger yesterday with "earnings" and the counter clerk laughed at me. He would only take cash and said "Look earnings are only a clue about future cash flows, which you can actually spend." I knew he would say that but I did it anyway to justify this tweet.
2/ "Free cash flow is something that investors can spend. Investors can’t spend percentage margins. When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance of our GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of future cash flows, we’ll take the cash flows.” Jeff Bezos
3/ If earnings are only a clue about future cash flow, why are people so obsessed about it? Because they are lazy and it is a shortcut companies must report. Mauboussin explains here: expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
1/ "technology has broken entry barriers and will structurally pressure margins in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry." You can see this in the grocery- big brands are no longer in the prime eye level shelf space. Brands like Beecher's Cheese are.

braziljournal.com/enrique-abeyta…
2/ "If you go to a supermarket, you see hundreds of new brands in the supermarket shelf, the client doesn’t want to leave their house anymore.. We bought brands we thought would last forever. We borrowed a lot of cheap money because money was cheap...."

braziljournal.com/jorge-paulo-le…
3/ "When TV advertising first arrived ...if you were Procter & Gamble you could afford the very expensive cost of network television because you were selling so damn many cans and bottles. Some little guy couldn't." Charlie Munger old.ycombinator.com/munger.html

Not the same world now.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Harish Kawalkar
@kawalkar
Charlie Munger, nor I believe that rule to be sensible. Rather, both of us have
consistently thought that at Berkshire this mark-to-market change would produce what I described as “wild and
capricious swings in our bottom line.”

#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Our advice? Focus on operating earnings, paying little attention to gains or losses of any variety. My saying
that in no way diminishes the importance of our investments to Berkshire.
#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Over time, Charlie and I expect them to
deliver substantial gains, albeit with highly irregular timing.

#WarrenBuffet 2018 Letter
Read 28 tweets
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Ali Adair #WaveCast #WaveCastFL
@AliAdair22
🏆In the astonishingly corrupt world of politics in Washington today, it is important to acknowledge people that do the right thing no matter the consequences. I think we should acknowledge the 58 members of the 115th Congress who did the right thing.

#ImpeachTrump
🥇These members of the 115th Congress didn’t think about the political ramifications, their reputations or the timing; they just voted honorably not to table the measure to impeach a prez who is clearly not abiding by the law or representing our country the way it deserves to be.
🏆Most of these members of the 115th Congress are still in Congress, but some are Governors or in new positions. One member, Louise Slaughter D-NY, sadly died in 2018. More on her later.
Read 80 tweets
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Ugo Obi-Chukwu
@ugodre
Good evening everyone and happy new year. Welcome to our first @Nairametrics Corporate News thread for the year. This thread is BTU by @BluechipTechNG

Thread Starts here.
On this thread, we are going to be reviewing some of the major corporate deals that took place in 2018 from a Nigerian perspective. We will also provide relevant links for those who may want to have a deepdive.
Please feel free to comment, retweet and contribute as the tweets roll in. It might be a long night so please be patient. If you can't wait then subscribe to our Newsletter to get an even more comprehensive report with more background info. This will be out before Friday.
Read 144 tweets
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mcm-ct.com
@mcm_ct
1/
VOL CONTROL/VOL TARGETING

What that got to do with the markets right now?

Well, inverted $VIX has been lagging the #equity index’s and that is a big deal. The reason it is a big deal is because the of VOL TARGETING
2/
Volatility targeting/control strategies aim to control risk by BUYING $VIX as $SPX drops and liquidating $SPX as $VIX rises.

When $SPX makes new lows but $VIX does not the implication is these insurance products continue to buy #ES_F futures while sell $VIX
3/

So what so we have here? We have an entire sector that has built a model where a divergent $VIX = increased $SPX buying via #ES_F futures.

This strategy is roughly $1 tillion in notional and like $SKEW is showing, hopelessly underhedged vs a downside break
Read 10 tweets
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Jamie McSloy
@JamieMcSloy
People have been asking me about AI and what I call the automation apocalypse. Here's a thread on it.

Ten tips for surviving the automation apocalypse.
1. Don't dispute the automation apocalypse and don't act like it's going to be all sunshine and rainbows. To do so reveals you as a naive person who can't comprehend the idea that life might get worse. Automation already wreaks havoc on the world, and it will get more obscene.
2. Understand nature of automation and humans. Automation first affects that which can be automated: This isn't low level labour exclusively. Sure, McDonalds has those personless cashier screens. But legal companies and finance companies are using algos instead of entry level too
Read 14 tweets
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Subomi
@subomiplumptre
#Thread #Equity: It is difficult to shake off #privilege. Difficult. And it is even harder to explain it to those who enjoy it.
I see so many men writing posts about sharing responsibilities at home, being participatory fathers, not dominating women etc.
This is great. So many are becoming "woke" and we must celebrate it. But here's the flip side and herein lies privilege.
Read 26 tweets

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