Thread by @rolandmcs

In the beginning was the word, and the word was Brexit.

Some thoughts on belief in Brexit, where it comes from and how it's sustained..... /1

Firstly, it is perfectly respectable to believe one's country should not have to participate in an ever closer political union with other countries and thereby release/'pool'/'lose control'* over some sovereignty. /2

* choose which one works with your predisposition.

That 'sovereignty' instinct is often at the start of someone's Brexit journey. They then become quickly convinced and categorical about the fact that Brexit is 'right' as they very soon see other things that confirm their rightness.
But what is actually going on here? /3

The key point is that the instinct comes first, being categorical about it comes a quick second (bolstered by selective observations that reinforce the instinct) and retrofitting or working around awkward facts that point the other way comes third. /3

The psychology of Brexit is thus a product of 'fast mode thinking' (from Thinking Fast and Slow) and appeals to people who rely on fast mode thinking to a dominant extent. /4

Brexit slogans and soundbites are very much woven into this mode of thinking - they have a powerful reinforcing effect on those who believe in Brexit and they also call out to the instinctive subconscious side in everyone. /5

A good example of this is that: "Most countries in the world do very well outside EU membership."
It seems self-evidently true e.g. the USA, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan which tend to spring to mind...
It hits the instinctive "But of course!" button. /6

A slightly more complex one is that "the EU and USA don't have a free trade deal" which leads to "most countries don't" and on to "most of the world trades under WTO rules". /7

They are "nearly true".
They have instinctive appeal and, in the latter's case, there is also some apparent trade "expertise" to support the instinct. /8

Studies have also shown that the personality types Right Wing Authoritarian and Social Dominance Orientation played a big part in the Brexit vote. Belief in Capital Punishment being the biggest predictor of someone voting Leave. /9

But again, belief on capital punishment tends to arise from an emotional instinctive response. It's not a 'slow mode thinking' position. /10

The wider context of these personality types is of aversion to change, of change as loss, of "cognitive inflexibility", a need for order and for a binding identity (and punishment for those threatening disorder). /11

And these instincts are "obvious" to those holding them. For example, tweeters who suggest others outside this bubble don't even understand the word Leave, and (almost despairingly) "why is this so hard to understand?" give away the author's psychological predisposition. /12

People who naturally make fast instinctive judgements will see themselves as guardians of "common sense" while others, especially "so-called experts with their spreadsheets" merely "complicate things". /13

It's why Leavers are good at raw politics, of "playing to the gallery" you might say, of pushing emotional buttons. It's all part of the psychology. /14

It's also why "when you're explaining, you're losing" - a Remainer's Lot is not a happy one, and now (out of power) one of constant uphill struggle. It's having to argue for "hard realities" and a "less shit" position than the alternatives.... this approach failed on 23/6. /15

It's also why Remainers damn Leavers as "thick" (fast mode thinking) and "racist" (identity is important to them). /16

There are no easy answers to this political psychology landscape. And there's not necessarily a right or wrong side - both Remain & Leave can claim some vindication for what's happened over the last 3 years. /17

But understanding underlying psychologies and our different cognitive modes might just help us understand each other a little better. /ends

PS: I missed the tendency of Leavers to boil things down to everyday experiences - e.g. going to a car dealer to buy a car with no intention of walking away.
It appeals to "everyday decisions" used in fast mode thinking. And again it's "nearly true" (so it's false).

PPS: Ok, caveats -
1. "So all Leavers are fast thinkers & all Remainers slow thinkers?" No
2. "So all this rests on Kahneman?" No, there have been studies on all of this stuff.
3. "So Leave/Remain are only down to thinking modes?" No, this is one niche angle in a complex topic.

4. "So you're saying fast thinking is inherently inferior to slow?" No
5. "And Leavers only think fast?" No we all possess both modes. Some Remainers also start out with a fast thinking instinct.
6. "So what ARE you saying?" See above. It's something to consider "in the mix".