,
15 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
Brexit twitter / media this morning seems mostly to be a toxic brew of wishful thinking, panic, anger, and lame jokes, with no convincing way forward, and few attempts to put the questions we need to answer.
Let's try the calm, boring approach of going through the options...
Let's try the calm, boring approach of going through the options...
For the PM / supporters of the deal: If the deal is voted through this week (I know) how long will it realistically take to pass the legislation needed to be ready for Brexit, particularly with a tight Commons majority, and no Lords majority? 2/
Bearing in mind that this is a Government which has largely not been taking forward Brexit legislation for fear of defeat. There is no reason that will change, so we're presumably into extension territory. More on parliamentary precedures here 3/
Those supporting extension, either in deal, or just for more time, how long do you think we need, to achieve what, and what conditions do you expect the EU to ask for? Because nothing in negotiations comes free, as we haven't yet learnt 4/
Three months seems to be the most popular proposed extension time. So what do you expect to happen in three months that hasn't happened in nearly three years? What would happen if we need a second extension? Should we organise European elections? 5/
Similarly those who wish to rule out no-deal, if the PM's deal is not accepted, an extension will presumably be needed. For how long and to achieve what, under what conditions, are still the questions? 6/
Those who think there is a majority for a soft Brexit, how long would it take for Parliament to decide what it wanted, and then how negotiable would this be with the EU? Does it, as some suggest, actually mean the existing Withdrawal Agreement will suffice? 7/
(interjecting a small amount of opinion into these questions, I think the Withdrawal Agreement should be amended if we were going for a softer Brexit, not significantly, but there would be elements that aren't quite right) 8/
Those supporting no-deal, is no-deal supposed to be an end state, or as most suggest, just a temporary measure because the EU will inevitably then want to come back to the table and back-down / negotiate properly? 9/
Most no-deal supporters I've seen seem to suggest the UK will have more negotiating power after no-deal. Why should that be the case compared to now, what is it we will offer that will be different in the future? 10/
For all sides, the question so far always answered in the negative, are you prepared to be honest with the public about the choices and the trade-offs involved? That the EU is a more powerful negotiating partner to start with. 11/
For those MPs supporting a referendum, what is a fair question, how long will it take to organise, and what happens after the result? Does it require further negotiation with the EU before returning to the people? 12/
For all MPs, and quite possibly the media, are you prepared to ask these questions, particularly about the response of the EU under all scenarios, and probe the answers? Generally hasn't been a strength of too many involved. 13/
And can't resist one for all us twitter commentators, academics, think-tankers, interested etc, are you prepared to accept that there is no perfect answer to the Brexit problem, that all outcomes have flaws that we'll have to live with? 14/
TL:DR version. Yes the UK is in an absolute mess over Brexit, but it is still not beyond our abilities to get out of the mess at least gradually if we can be honest about it. In large part it is lack of honesty that is what has brought us to this mess 15/ end
