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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
So 3 parts to deal tonight but only 1obstacle
Two parts done: joint interpretative instrument, new legal assurances on arbitration/best endeavours added to withdrawal agreement/lodged with UN And addition to the political declaration
Outstanding is a "unilateral UK statement"
Unilateral statement is a government recommendation to MPs that it has assurances it needs for meaningful vote #2. To form basis of new legal advice from attorney general. Not negotiated with EU but needs to be given green light
Expecting May statement at 11pm (10pm UK). If it's a deal all to be published for 11.30pm (10.30 UK)
If, IF, it all goes well, then there is the vote tomorrow... followed by #EUCO next week. If the vote doesn't go well then most on the EU side expect a serious political crisis in UK
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
EU is unsure whether May will send a letter tomorrow or make oral request for extension at #EUCO on Thursday
“Does she have the authority because of the volatility,” said a senior source
Depending on what she does, #EUCO conclusions will either be detailed on extension options or vague. One issue will be whether May wants to hold a Commons vote on extension
There could be an extra summit around 28 or, even 29 March.
Spain will not use Gibraltar issue to complicate an extension - all EU27 have a veto. “A rare moment of Brexit sanity,"
Read 10 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Extension.
There not a clear automatic majority, let alone unanimity, among EU27 for an extension.Different ideas conditions and length of extension
Extensions short or long will have lots of conditions and must come with a plan, EU will want MPs to decide on revoking Brexit, a second referendum or a soft exit
EU leaders, will according to most diplomats, extend until end of June as a relatively easy option.
The 23 May date is about pressure. One possibility is to set conditions, extend for 6 weeks with conditions that MPs must decide on revoke, referendum or soft Brexit to get a longer extension
Read 6 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
May spells it out pretty well in her closing remarks
That is to say, she sees choices as: cancel Brexit OR hold a second referendum (means extension until end year) OR back different deal (a permeant customs union or Norway plus, also meaning a long extension
May is definitely signalling that a long extension of nine months to a year, perhaps even 21 months, is on the cards. It has support on EU side
thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…
Read 3 tweets

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Raphael Hogarth
@Raphael_Hogarth
Right, so this is the paragraph of the joint interpretative instrument that the government will spin as "unilateral exit mechanism".

This is, I think, exactly the process that exists under the current agreement, which I set out here:
UK claims EU is breaching best endeavours
3m later, formal dispute
6-12m later, arbitrators gives ruling
A "reasonable period" later, UK asks for new ruling on whether EU response gd enough
90d later, ruling given
6m later, UK can suspend part of the deal- i.e. leave backstop
And if the EU thinks that *that* (i.e., the UK leaving the backstop) is disproportionate, it can ask the arbitrators for yet another ruling, to be given within 60 days.
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Here we go....
Juncker - the Deal has been in the table for 105 days now, but the ratification has been more difficult on the UK side...
Here is the Juncker letter:
Read 19 tweets
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Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
Here goes:
Barnier's offer on Fri that "best endeavours" could be actionable by the UK at independent arbitration level appears to have unblocked things. ie, the offer of a Joint Interpretative Statement which commits both sides to best endeavours/good faith + is legally binding
So you have the beefed up "best endeavours" part - to remind people, that's about the UK's demand that the EU is acting in good faith to replace the backstop with a fully fledged FTA / alternative arrangements / technology etc...
Then, as I understand it, you will have language tonight on how the Independent Arbitration panel can use the best endeavours clause as evidence to support a future UK complaint that the EU is not acting in good faith etc.
Read 10 tweets
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Alexander
@37paday
1/ A-ha

@Geoffrey_Cox As you are in a bind, I have an idea. Read on 👀
2/ You gave some legal advice which you cannot change unless the Withdrawal Agreement changes (either itself or some other treaty level change)
3/ This means a lot of Tory MPs are relying on you because they effectively voted against the Withdrawal Agreement in favour of “alternative arrangements”.* The 🦄 motion as I call it.

*only Ken Clarke voted for the withdrawal agreement and against the 🦄 motion.
Read 17 tweets
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Alex Barker
@alexebarker
The Walloon Solution, codicils, the Danish-Dutch fix -- what on earth does all this have to do with Brexit?

Here's my (probably futile) attempt to explain
The challenge: Theresa May needs a legally binding reassurance on the Northern Ireland backstop that does not actually change Britain's exit treaty.
The Danes faced this problem in 1992 when they voted down the Maastricht treaty.

With (a little) help from the Brits and some nifty footwork from @piris_jc a creative solution was found.

(@OleRyborg says it was first written on a copy of the FT during a Brazil-Norway flight)
Read 17 tweets
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Alexander
@37paday
1/ The Withdrawal Agreement or the risk of there being no Withdrawal Agreement should be subject to a final say for all by the Autumn of 2018
2/ While the Government considers that the referendum has given it a mandate to leave the EU, the terms of departure in 2016, 2017 and as of today were and are not certain.
3/ The European Parliament will be able to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and presumably there is always a risk it may not vote in favour of it.
Read 29 tweets

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