Thread by @Stone_SkyNews

With two hours to go until the meaningful vote, some thoughts on what happens next - assuming she loses but by a smaller margin than the first meaningful vote (when she lost by 230) [Thread] /1

.@theresa_may will decide (if she survives the next 10 days) to come back with a 3rd meaningful vote in the coming days - probably after next week’s European Summit.

Sources in on the EU side expect her to “come knocking at the door once more.”

But: “Our pockets are empty” /2

So the bigger question now (assuming she loses MV3 too) is what extension, if any, the EU grants.

Remember the 27 remaining member states of the EU must unanimously agree to grant the UK an extension to the two year exit period which runs out on 29 March. /3

There will be no point in agreeing a short extension (known as a technical extension) - to the end of June for example - because that won’t be enough time to achieve anything. (This sort of extension was only useful to give her time to ratify the deal if it had passed) /4

So the EU will consider a longer extension - 6+ months or years. 

The assumption is that they will be minded to grant it.

After all, would they want to be blamed for causing a ‘no deal’ by preventing an extension? /5

But - there has, hitherto, not been any discussion at leader level (by the 27 remaining members of the EU) of a longer extension.

So it’s hard to know precisely what the 27 remaining EU governments really think about a longer extension. /6

Weighed against granting a longer extension are several considerations. 

1. The UK will be bound to take part in the European Parliament elections if a longer extension is granted. This could, as a good source puts it, result in ‘a bunch of @Nigel_Farage’s in the EP chamber /7

2. Increasingly you hear voices among the 27 saying:

‘This has to end. And if it’s no deal, then OK, let’s do it. The uncertainty is hurting business. We just end it now.’ /8

So, while it’s highly likely that the 27 will grant a long extension, it’s not a foregone conclusion. /9

Of course, the UK Parliament will vote on an extension tomorrow or Thursday. Will they vote for a short one (but for what purpose?) or will they vote for a longer one?

Whatever they vote for, it’s not up to them. The say-so and the duration is in the gift of the EU
/10