Thread by @TenanATC

I've now had time to watch and read this interesting presentation by @LukeBornn @OSPpatrick @DarcyNorman at @SloanSportsConf and have had time to collect my thoughts. Here's my thread and/or rant... depending on your perspective.

1/8

https://twitter.com/LukeBornn/status/1104798002403717120

First, this is a great team of people with an expertise to tackle this problem. I actually think it's funny that the team as a whole mirrors my own background (statistician, athletic trainer & exercise scientist). Great team effort.

2/8

Second, with a few exceptions related to inelegant word choice about statistical significance and path diagrams, I agree that the authors have taken a reasonable approach to examining acute:chronic workload to predict injury/causal effects.

3/8

Alright, now the issues:
1. Based upon their paper/presentation I find the overall argument for using this acute:chronic workload quantification incredibly thin. Not that it shouldn't be explored, but if it is being widely used...WHY?!
4/8

2. There seems to be no great causal (or predictive, beyond coincidence) why this acute:chronic measure would work. It's biased by exposure time & work intensity (which one would think means increased movement variance, leading to movement outliers which cause acute injury).
5/8

3. Should we be surprised that one singular metric isn't effective at predicting injury? I mean, c'mon! You don't determine who your starting forward (basketball or soccer) is based purely on their VO2max. Why would you expect a singular metric to effectively predict injury?
6/8

Finally, can't professional sports teams do better? With all the $$$, I would expect the development of more comprehensive, dynamical models of health, performance & injury.

Is it a case of GM's not knowing the value or personnel (analytics/S&C/ATs) not talking?
...

7/8

...The authors paper actually ends on this note. They suggest that more complex models, data and analysis are required to be successful. AGREED.

I'm working to do this on the Department of Defense side, I'm surprised that professional sports isn't further along.

8/FIN