Thread by @katyballs

Which division lobby will the next Tory leader walk into on Tuesday night? Conservative MPs increasingly think it will be an MP in the aye lobby that succeeds Theresa May as Prime Minister – my iWeekend piece
inews.co.uk/news/brexit/to…

After a week of high drama and successive government defeats, talk has turned to who will succeed May once this unhappy chapter of Tory drama reaches its end

renewed optimism in government that May could pass – or at least get very close to passing – her deal next week. If the vote looks close next week, May will come under pressure to set an exit date

Tory Whips report that this pledge is crucial to getting some of the more hardcore Eurosceptics on side. Theory goes: if a Brexiteer was at the helm for the subsequent trade talks, the government would fare better

May’s allies admit the game is up. Her former adviser Tom Swarbuck said on Friday that he reluctantly agreed it was time ‘that this Prime Minister looks at her time in office because I’m not sure she is the right person to bring this back together’.

The expectation of a Tory leadership contest later this year has meant that this week’s votes have been seen within the parliamentary party as a prism for the various leadership pitches.

Vote that will prove decisive in carving out May’s successor is the next meaningful vote. In recent days, more Brexiteers have come around reluctantly to May’s deal.

‘It will only be the ultra-hardliners who don’t and frankly we’ve had enough of them,’ vents one MP. Any future leader must win the support of at least a third of the Parliamentary party—105 MPs.

Any Brexiteer who refuses to get behind the deal will face short shrift from many MPs. All eyes are now on Raab and Johnson to see whether they climbdown next week.