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One of many linking today to an excellent essay by @jtlevy from last year is @SykesCharlie. The essay is about Trump, language and policy. I’d add one observation, a commonplace one really, about American politics.
Recessions are generally bad for the party that controls the White House; its supporters are discouraged, its opponents motivated. Economic recoveries, conversely, usually benefit the party that holds the Presidency. This is only partially about the general public mood.
It’s also, maybe mostly, about who votes. In any event, this is necessary context for understanding Trump’s support. By historic standards, he has been wildly unpopular for a President presiding over an economy still recovering from the Great Recession.
But the recovery has still had an impact. It has given habitual Republican voters (and therefore GOP elected officials) a reason to rationalize their support of Trump. It’s not a good reason, on the merits— new Presidents don’t change the economy, other things being equal.
But the greatest number of Trump supporters might be dispirited were the economy in poorer shape and getting worse. Acceptance of the words Trump uses and @jtlevy analyzes might be significantly less than it has been. Historical precedent suggests “might” = “would.”
We like to believe this isn’t as significant a factor in our politics as it is. I wonder, though, if a booming economy might have altered the trajectory of Watergate in the 1973-74 period, or if a recession in 1987 would have brought Reagan’s Presidency to a crashing halt.
Things other than the state and direction of the economy should matter to voters. They do matter to most voters. But for many voters — including those who incline generally to one party but do not follow public affairs closely — nothing matters more.
This, under present conditions, buoys Trump. It insulates him from discontent within his party, & gives his partisans a reason to resent criticism of his leadership. Unfortunately, it provides ideal conditions for the malignant fruit his language represents to ripen. [end]
