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Thabang Motsohi
@MotsohiThabang
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
@threadreaderapp Big strategic error to bring Cosatu+SACP into political power and governance post 1994. The Alliance is synonymous to policy incoherence and putting breaks on growth. Mandela and Mbeki knew this. They marginalized them.
We achieved impressive economic growth in context of prior apartheid disaster.Vavi and Blake engineered Mbeki recall and pushed JZ into power.Investor confidence + FDI plunged because of policy incoherence and gridlock.With alliance in power growth will never
exceed 2%. JZ took power following financial melt down of 2008/09 when global demand was flat. Alliance +policy incoherence were incompatible with context. They still are!! Cyril is locked into alliance clutch and constrained. He will spend more energy...
and effort trying to collar Cosatu and SACP than focus on SA vision, yet to be clarified, in context of suffocating sovereign debt and contingent risks posed by Eskom, SAA and other SOEs.Other detractors are fractious implosion of the ANC.This is inevitable
Cyril has emphatically stated that his time is about renewal.This means SA needs a new vision to guide renewal commitment. This is Not clear. He needs to engage all stakeholders to craft that. It is urgent and mandatory.But not possible with alliance in place
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Thabang Motsohi
@MotsohiThabang
Very short history of irrational decision making and state capture by the ANC wrt Eskom:
1. Around 2001 govemnt decided not to invest in new generation plants.
2. Under pressure and panic Medupi and Kusile get the go ahead
3.Chancelor house (ANC investment Co.) and Hitashi get the job without public tender.
4. 2008 1st load shedding happens.
5. Maintenance and refurbishment of generation plants suffer budget cuts.
6. From 2011 revolving door is erected at board level.
7. A series of disastrous board changes is implemented 1st under Gigaba.
8. Experienced technicians and engineers are shafted out of Eskom.
9. Slope to disaster is covered in slippery oil under growing debt; inefficiency and massive corruption
Read 4 tweets
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Thabang Motsohi
@MotsohiThabang
@Eusebius The long game strategy you have just recounted does sound conving. However consider the following:
1. The NEC has another 4yrs beyond the election. Half its members benefited from the JZ patronage. They continue to be under his control.
2. Ace, is essentially the CEO of ANC. His avowed support for JZ is uncontestable. He's also publicly contradicted Cyril.
3. Cyril does Not have executive power. His mandate is to execute ANC policy under oversight by the NEC.
4. Doctrine of collective leadership is central to the ANC culture and underpinned by the philosophy of Democratic Centralism.
5. His latitude for decision making is objectively constrained. Thabo Mbeki was ejected for adopting a strong man leadership style.
Read 5 tweets

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