Thread by @Stone_SkyNews

NEW: @theresa_may is to request only 'short delay' to Brexit in letter to EU a government source has told @tamcohen. [thread]
news.sky.com/story/theresa-…

It’s understood her original preference was to ask EU for a short extension which could be lengthened if needed, or a long one with a break clause in it.
But @MichelBarnier told me yesterday that it’s short or long, not both.

.@MichelBarnier also made clear that a specific reason must be given to warrant an extension: “Needs to be linked to something new - a new event, new political process.“
So:
- election?
- 2nd referendum?
- new cross-party political declaration (removing May red lines)?

In opting for a short extension, @theresa_may will probably avoid cabinet resignations but she risks an almighty and dangerous showdown next week.

With a short extension she is banking on a new version of her meaningful vote being both allowed to take place by Speaker Bercow and then it going her way.

If MV3 does happen next week and she wins it, then she is almost certainly home and dry with a short extension.

If either she isn’t allowed to table another meaningful vote or she is and she loses it, then what? The concern for the EU will be that the short delay simply delays the deadline and potential crash out by 3 months.

The problem for @theresa_may, as her letter requesting an extension to #Brexit is delivered to @eucopresident, is that the 🇪🇺 now has zero faith in @theresa_may ability to deliver on her word and zero faith in the 🇬🇧 political system.

On numerous occasions the 🇪🇺 side has accepted @theresa_may’s word in the #brexit negotiations - on the inclusion of an Irish backstop, on her insistence several times that the deal she struck with the 🇪🇺 would get parliamentary backing.

Ultimately the EU side will feel, despite tough language, that there’s no choice but to grant an extension - they don’t want to be seen to be forcing the UK out of the EU, over a cliff, despite the UK asking for help to cling on.

But the EU will be v worried that the UK is just postponing the no deal rupture deadline and they will be worried that @theresa_may will inevitably have to return asking for another extension when this short one runs out.

For those of us hoping we may get clarity at summit this Thursday or Friday, we may not. It’s possible leaders will only discuss extension options and requests but not announce their decision until after a possible Meaningful Vote 3 next week if it happens
Tick tock, tick tock...

And there is a potential huge problem of the European Parliament elections:
Imagine the EU agrees a short extension (to late May or late June) so UK doesn’t have to field candidates to EP election... but then UK asks for longer extension but hasn’t taken part in elections. 🤷‍♂️

In reality, any ‘short’ extension to late May (EP elections) or late June (new European Parliament sits), actually has a *real* deadline of mid-April because that is when the UK needs to legislate by if it’s to take part in European Elections.