Thread by @BjornLomborg

Clearly, I upset this person complaining about news not linking everything to climate
I'll not stoop to her level of vitriol, but her claims are simply wrong

Let's see...

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1108150373695586304

'We don't want to blame climate, we just want it mentioned'

That is disingenuous: if global warming didn't cause the flooding, why should it be mentioned?

Moreover, it is a weak demand, ordering NYTimes to write stuff not causing the flood, but which she thinks is 'context'

Dr. Guenther shows four clips from a search, where "flood" is mentioned in the US Climate Assessment

Sure...?

But maybe read it? This is about *projected* flood

Not what NYTimes article is about, and not what I'm writing about — the discussion is on *current* flooding

UN IPCC and US NCA — and I — agree that *future* climate change can increase flooding in some catchments
p242 science2017.globalchange.gov

But for current floods, the changes — both increases and decreases in flooding — cannot be attributed to climate

I know, this is not what she wants to hear, but she can't just make up stuff
(p231, science2017.globalchange.gov, also p161 nca2018.globalchange.gov)

She then literally suggest I do a search for flooding, telling me I'll find the word passages she quotes above

Sure, but you also have to read them — again, they tell us that warming might influence future flooding, but can't explain current higher and lower flooding

Now we get to the harsh stuff. Apparently, I'm lying because I correctly quote the US Climate Assessment's correct quote of the UN Climate Panel

And here is her piece-de-resistance: That there is another part of the US NCA that says "In fact, across the midwestern United States, statistically significant increases in flooding are well documented."
She is so happy with this, she repeats it three times

But this passage does not say, what she thinks it says.
It says we've documented that there is more flooding in the Midwest.
But that is exactly what the US NCA conclusion, I showed, says: There are documented/detectable both increases and decreases of flooding in the US

But right after that, the US NCA correctly say, that we can't attribute either to climate change.
It really isn't all that complicated

Yet, Dr. Guenther claims she just documented "established local links between climate change and extreme weather"

She didn't. She showed documented increases in Midwest, but the NCA (not IPCC, as she claims) says these cannot be attributed to climate

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1108152842953596934

It is fascinating how the feeling that climate must be causing this flooding, simply overrules that the NCA says that we can't link this to climate

See her giddy excitement for all the references, but without properly understanding the text and context

If she — contrary to the US NCA — really believed that these increases are caused by climate, why would she not similarly believe that the decrease of flooding in the Southwest is also caused by climate and hail it as a benefit?

It is good that she is committed to a culture of truth

But understanding what is written would help, too

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1108153015083720705

She also claims that climate change will get more and more dangerous every year

I agree — in the limited sense that the IPCC evidence shows climate change will get costlier across the century
But be honest about size and where extra costs will come

https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1108153015083720705

Just look at the impact of US flooding.
The cost of flooding has declined dramatically over the past century (measured as % GDP, since as we get richer, an identical flooding will flood two, more expensive houses rather than one)

And cost of flooding, with any realistic adaptation, will likely continue to go down (although the cost of adaptation will be a real cost of climate)
pnas.org/content/111/9/…

Dr. Guenther claims I don't want people to know the truth

No. I don't want misinformation saying that flood increases are due to climate when this is not supported by science

Suggesting it is okay to make false claims to make people care is morally unsupportable

Finally, Dr. Guenther shows her class by venting without substance

My work is about us spending $ to help best
If over-worry on climate, we likely do badly
(eg helping future flood victims with ineffective, expensive CO₂ cuts, rather than effective, better flood management)

So, no, Dr. Guenther: I speak for reason, life and being smart by investing where it helps humanity the most

Your twitter tirade got the basics wrong and made twitter a bit uglier

But facts and science are stubborn things
#factsNotFeelings