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Right, let's see if we can't work out what the impact of yesterday was:
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I'd open by noting that even after a sleep no-one seems very confident about how it could play out, which suggests that if there's a cunning plan behind it, then it's very cunning, and thus liable to not work
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The most obvious impact is that it complicates No.10's route 1 - MV3- and so makes it less likely
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Various chatter that there might be procedural ways around Bercow's block, but all involve having a compliant Commons, which isn't a given
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Yes, you could argue it raises chances of #EUref2, as a way of adding to MV text substantively, but v.uncertain that there's any more appetite for one than last week. Would need backbenches on both sides to rebel massively
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Recall that EU isn't going to reopen WA or add to existing clarifications, so only PD is left, so possible path of reworking that to bring LAB on board, but this would go against entire May ethos to date, plus no guarantee that LAB would play along
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All of which seems to suggest that main impact so far is to raise chances of no-deal.
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Yes, Commons strongly against that, but has now lost simple MV3 path, plus no sign of a gvt plan to offer EU for an extension
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In sum, gvt in even worse position than it was, 10 days out
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