Thread by @Usherwood

that Theresa May EUCO track record in full:

1/

Ahead of this week's trip to Brussels, let's recall how previous meetings with the other Heads of Gvt/State of the EU27 have gone

2/

First one post-election to PM was Oct 2016.

A v.brief opportunity to set out plans, w/o much impact

theguardian.com/politics/2016/…

3/

Not too bad, but also not a clear moving forward of the discussion. EU27 were largely waiting on UK to decide when to notify

4/

Dec 16 was next, and some more of the same. EU27 had dinner without May, largely as nothing more to be said at that point

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

5/

Feb 17 in Malta did nothing either, as attention was elsewhere

news.sky.com/story/donald-t…

6/

Mar 17 wasn't great, with May telling EU27 all about the single market and how it works

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

7/

May didn't go for the Apr 17 special EUCO, as the EU27 were talking about the UK, not with it, following notification (and the announcement of #GE17)

8/

So Jun 17 was the first post-notification meeting, which didn't go all that well, with citizens' rights being the main bone of contention

euobserver.com/brexit/138340

9/

Sep 17 Digital summit in Tallinin avoided the topic all together

9/

Oct 17 had been intended to get Phase 1 towards the line, but instead there was a demand for 'more clarity' from UK

euobserver.com/brexit/139259

10/

Tusk was still quite conciliatory on progress BTW

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

11/

Even if this was when we had that photo of May on her own, waiting for a bilateral

metro.co.uk/2017/10/20/the…

12/

After some hither and thither, the Dec 17 meeting did confirm 'sufficient progress' and some efforts to improve the optics of how it was all going

politico.eu/article/theres…

13/

That meant the Mar 18 meeting, where the EU27 agreed their mandate for the future relationship, was also friendly enough

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

14/

Leading then into Jun 18, with both sides looking to pick up the pace, off the back of the draft agreement

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

15/

Only for that Salzburg summit, where May and UK badly misjudged the mood

edition.cnn.com/2018/09/21/uk/…

16/

That was Sep 18 (although it feels very much longer ago than that) and it's coloured relations since

17/

Oct 18 didn't unblock anything and unset the planned completion of the negotiations, not least as May wasn't seen to bring anything to the table

politico.eu/article/brexit…

18/

A month later and UK got everyone back round the table for a special meeting (under some duress), where a text was initialled

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-463346…

19/

However, it's worth noting that the subsequent Parliamentary games did leave a bad taste in EU27's mouths and raised Qs about how much May was trying to play a straight bat (trademark J. Major)

20/

That was evident at Dec 18 - the last to date - where May went asking for renegotiation and got told to forget it

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

20/

In sum, EUCO's have never been moments of unblocking for Brexit.

Where they have done things, it has been to confirm progress by negotiators (i.e. UK-COM), or to underline that the process is the process

21/

May's personal track record has been one of, at best, keeping EU27 happy that things are moving; at worst, seriously annoying them

22/

Purely on that basis, this week's EUCO is not going to be the answer to any of the questions facing both sides, so don't go looking for any.

/end