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One comment. Chris is right that a no confidence motion under the FTPA doesn’t immediately eject the PM from office. The PM State until either a new (or her own) government wins a confidence motion within 14 days or until she loses a GE.
By convention a PM who has lost a confidence vote doesn’t take controversial decisions - but that is overridden if there is no way of postponing the decision.
This then is the problem: if May loses a confidence vote, she doesn’t automatically just go. She remains until there’s a successor with their own majority.
If there is such a person, then a defeated May is bound to advise the Queen to send at once for that person to invite them to form a Govt.
That means that any move by MPs to get May out of office enough time before 12 April to prevent her pulling the house down must do so on the basis that they have found a successor who can - demonstrably - command an HoC confidence vote.
That will be challenging without a lot of statesmanship and cross-party working. /ends
“PM stays”, not “State”.
