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No doubt #nswdecides was a climate election, here’s a short thread explaining why:
1. Coogee is the one seat won back by the ALP and exit polling showed the number one issue was climate change. It was also particularly significant in shifting Liberal votes: google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.…
2. The #Natcollapse is a huge story with two elements. First, failure to respond to climate disaster impacts seems likely to have been a key vote shifter.
3. Another likely driver in #Natcollapse is that Shooters Farmers Fishers are positioning themselves as the party that is local, embedded - and has not sold out to coal mining companies and other big corporate interests. “Shooters Fishers Farmers”... but not miners.
4. Given the amount of publicity around the NSW Greens internal strife, it is remarkable they held all lower house seats. Climate disaster making for sticky green voters.
5. So why didn’t the ALP win then, given they had the stronger climate policies? Three things I reckon... First, even in climate disaster times the party with the better policies on climate must look generally capable. And after that disastrous last week, Labor didn’t.
Second, rightly or wrongly, the events and optics of the last week served to cast Gladys as the more progressive candidate, on guns, gender and race.
Third, the NSW Liberals don’t currently have effective climate policy, but they have some who do care and work on climate & environment issues. In other words it isn’t the federal Liberal scene run by loons & deniers. You can imagine the NSW state Libs doing a 2007 David Cameron.
That is, in opposition, then UK Conservative Leader David Cameron fully accepted the climate science and articulated a policy platform to rival Labour, as part of rebuilding the Tories who had become unelectable as ‘the nasty party’.
