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Robert Peston
@Peston
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
As I said earlier, there is a good chance that in meaningful votes on Tuesday and Wednesday, MPs will back either a softer form of Brexit that breaches the PM's red lines - on ending freedom of movement and negotiating trade deal - or Kyle/Wilson referendum plan. I have now...
asked eight members of the Cabinet whether they think @theresa_may would respect the will of parliament and negotiate either of those outcomes with the EU. All said she would not. "What then?" I asked. All feared there would be a general election (which is also what...
@SteveBarclay is mooting, as are Brexiter Tory MPs from the ERG) - which is what you'll remember I described as a very real risk earlier today. You have been warned. Yikes
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Commons chatter is that in promising Tory Brexiters that if they vote for her deal their dreams come true and they get @BorisJohnson or @DominicRaab as next PM, @theresa_may has given new incentive to Labour's soft Brexiters and Tory Remainers not to vote for her deal, because...
if Johnson or Raab is in charge of negotiations on future relationship with EU, which are more important some would say than the divorce talks, that relationship will be uber Brexity. So in wooing one important constituency to get her deal over the line, she has alienated...
another important constituency. I am still very unclear how she gets her deal over the line
Read 3 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
So Downing Street source confirms that the leadership election will begin on 22 May, if MPs support the prime minister's deal in third meaningful vote and Brexit happens on that timetable. It is a commitment that there will be "new leadership for phase two" of negotiations...
with the EU, as per what @BorisJohnson demanded to secure his support for her Brexit. I said on Sunday night she would do this, based on conversations with sources, but truthfully I didn't really believe it.
In terms of mechanics, she stays as leader and PM till new leader is in place. So @theresa_may will presumably still be PM till circa July. Also, no guidance available at all about when she would stand down if her deal is not ratified by MPs - which still looks very likely...
Read 6 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
I am told cabinet secretary Mark Sedwill and attorney general Geoffrey Cox informed Cabinet that if at the end of the Letwin process MPs pass a motion mandating the PM to pursue a new route through the Brexit mess - perhaps a referendum, or membership...
of the customs union, or some other softer future relationship with the EU - the PM and government would be in breach of the ministerial code and the law if they failed to follow MP's instructions. I'll put out a blog on this in a bit. But this matters because it dispels...
impression created by PM, and certainly believed by many Brexiter MPs, that she would be at liberty to ignore the results of the Letwin scheme. Which means that if she brings back her deal for a meaningful vote on Friday, which is her current plan, that may be the last time...
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
So why is @theresa_may so stuck on her lousy deal? Well she has 4 objectives and her deal meets these and nothing else does I believe this explains much about her conduct the objectives are as follows THREAD
1/keeping the tory party together and in power this of course is the top priority. Theresa may is aware that any other options be it dal no deal or some BRINO deal with Corbyn would instantly result in a walk out by one faction and with no majority the gov would fall
2/ May is actually terrified of no deal. All the evidence is that this lwould result in awful consequences for millions of people which would destroy any government that presided over it if she wanted no deal she would not have negotiated a deal 2 start with
Read 17 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:
The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek *some unstated other way* to avoid a hard border in Ireland:
Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.
Read 9 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
No10 says EU must decide if it will release a letter of assurances before the vote on Tuesday but EU sources tell me they are waiting for the go-ahead advice from Downing Street 1
The letter could have been released Saturday night ahead of No10 Sunday media blitz but wasn’t .. It could be released tonight or tomorrow ahead of vote .. OR EU/No10 may decide better not since 2
The EU letter will I’m told contain assurances/explanations of current deal and nothing new. The letter would come from Juncker/Tusk in Brussels and they can’t change the #Brexit deal without negotiation with and go ahead from 27 EU leaders 3
Read 20 tweets
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Nice Conversations 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇪🇺
@NiceConvos
Good morning. Today seems like a good day to tell you about my conversation with a brexiter, that I had a few weeks ago.
That day I was told to my face that #brexit means they can finally switch out all those EU migrants with better foreigners. /1
This person knew that I am one of "all those EU migrants". And while I've been told way too many times to count that I should "go home" or "go back where you came from", being told that I can and indeed will be "switched out" for something better was a new one to me. /2
There has been a shift, a reframing going on for a while. Back in the early #brexit days, any foreigner was bad. Then followed the phase of bad EU migrants (e.g. "those Poles! Those Bulgarians!"...) and good ones ("we don't mean you!, You'll be fine"). /3
Read 18 tweets
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Gergely Polner
@eurocrat
#Brexit White Paper is finally out

Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. The full U.K. solution to the Irish border will be rejected by the EU
2. A ‘common rulebook for goods’ - the EU could do two things: A) reject as cherry-picking parts of the single market or B) start discussing how much of this is doable under an FTA.
There’s a good chance it would be B, but it will have to be tweaked significantly
Read 5 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

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