Thread by @MitchellSt

Thread on what has changed between the "Hold 2nd Referendum" petition Jun-16 and the "Revoke Article 50" one that is current based on geographical patterns. #RevokeArticle50Petition #Brexit (1/15)

First observation, far more signatures for this one from Scotland. Why? Because the Jun-16 talked a about a second referendum and you can understand why a Scottish Remainer Unionist might not be so keen on that. (2/15)

More signatures in Northern Ireland proportionately as well compared to England and Wales, which I will come back to later. I will note that Northern Ireland has proportionately fewer votes until the weekend. May say something about broadband coverage there? (3/15)

What's interesting for English regions? London is only up by 10% whereas rest of England is up almost 20%. North East and South West seeing the highest percentage of additional signatures. (4/15)

By sitting MP Conservative seats are up more than Labour seats. (Reminder that in Jun-16 seats may have had a different sitting MP). The Independent Group's seats are up only 14% vs higher scores for all other parties (5/15)

Most importantly, where are the additional million odd signatures from? Scotland and Northern Ireland only account for 300k worth. Aside from that, it does seem that Remain seats are driving the extra votes. Potentially some turning 18 in past 30 odd months (6/15)

Looking at the splits for Referendum and main two parties, we see that it is actually Conservative Leave seats that have added the most signatures proportionately. Followed by Labour Remain, Conservative Remain. Labour Leave seats far less enthused about this petition (7/15)

So where have their been changes, which types of leave seat. Lots of extra signatures on Kent coast and South West (8/15)

Conversely not only proportionately fewer but actually fewer signatures in Labour inner city seats. Potentially some of the signatures in Jun-16 could have been when petition was a leave driven one before the results came in. (9/15)

List of proportionately extra signatures in Remain areas dominated by Northern Ireland. Looking at GB we can see South West featuring strongly again. (10/15)

Remain seats with fewer signatures this time round like the leave ones, Labour inner city seats. Could there be a shift work delay and their proportions could increase next week? Possibly, one to watch out for. (11/15)

What does this look like mapped? Well the sheer additional volume in Scotland means those seats with 3 times the signatures in Mar-19 vs Jun-16 dominate. (12/15)

So for the sake of comparison, let's drop those out. Same issue again, this time N. Ireland driving the issue. Note the stronger colours around the border however (13/15)

This time just England and Wales and we'll also make seats that haven't hit the number of signatures they got in second referendum petition blue. (14/15)

So if we assume that an area with proportionately more signatures now compared to Jun-16 is more concerned about Brexit, it looks like North East England, Kent coast and South West can join N. Ireland (esp border areas) and Scotland (as not framed as 2nd referendum) (15/15)

(The maps expand out if you save or open in fresh tab)

few maps in here @ElectionMapsUK @NCPoliticsUK @polmapsinfoUK @roadto326 FYI