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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So, after 'a million' People's Vote marchers shrank to 312k-400k, at risk of puncturing Liberal?metropolitan bubble further on the 'second referendum' question... this is fascinating from Sir John Curtice.

Tldr: no appetite for a re-run of 2016. /1

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
The numbers on a Leave v Remain vote also remain pretty marginal, which is remarkable given the two years of chaos and stagnation that the #Brexit divorce negotiation has dleivered. Even two years of pretty unrelenting defeats in Brussels hasn't changed that many minds. /2
Regular readers will know that I've not been afraid to point out the abiding lack of realism on Brexiteers side about what #Brexit can deliver and the constraints of choices facing us as we leave. /3
But I'm getting equally exhausted at all my liberal/metropolitian mates repeatedly telling me there is a revolutionary groundswell in favour of a referendum that, in any case, is likely to be inconclusive.

Both sides need to stop just believing what they want to believe/4
h/t jack_blanchard_ for flagging that poll in his AM newsletter for @POLITICOEurope
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. #Brexit uncertainty abounds, but some things are pretty certain, and MPs' coming choices are now coming into sharp focus.

So take half a step back from Westminster fog, and perhaps it's not as quite as cloudy as it seems. Here's where we are #Brexit 1/Thread.
1. MPs can vote over May's divorce deal tomorrow. This is unlikely, I agree, but if they do, they have until May 22 to complete the paperwork.

If they do not back the deal, then the May 22 option is gone, per terms agreed with EU last week. /2
At which point, the UK is hurtling towards a 'no deal' - which MPs have rejected by 160-400 votes.

So assuming they don't want a 'no deal' what can they do?

They can activate second option, which is to ask the EU for a long extension. /3
Read 12 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So two reliable sources confirm this is right. No 10 plan is to vote on Withdrawal Agreement only for MV3.... why? What's the game? #Brexit 1/thread

Assumption is that Labour front bench will vote against - and the government must know this - but that implies a clear choice on their part. /2
If the House rejects MV3 Withdrawal Agreement only, then it must face up to fact that (in absence of 'no deal') it is also voting for

a) Long Extensoin
b) European Elections. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: Right. Will there, or will there not be a border in Northern Ireland in the event of a 'no deal' #brexit?

Today HMRC is holding conversations with NI business groups on what happens. I have copy of the talking points handed out. What do we learn? 1/Thread
It's all based on the UK Government's communication from March 12 on how it would handle a 'no deal'....known in Brussels as the 'smugglers' charter' - it is summarised in the talking points thus: /2

gov.uk/guidance/eu-ex…
So the UK is committed to having no checks for stuff going from Republic to the North....which begs the questions set out here in the talking points paper.

What happens if people abuse the border? How does that work? It's a gaping hole.... /3
Read 14 tweets

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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
People who said a second referendum would damage public trust in politics are now signing up to something they think will turn the UK into a slave state because it might get rid of a political rival.
"I declare the voting period open and I suspend the House accordingly for that period."
Ah, no. I'm told they'll actually be counted earlier. But then they debate and vote on the statutory instrument delaying Brexit day until 9pm. And then they announce.
Read 71 tweets
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Robert Saunders
@redhistorian
A couple of people have asked why I would march for a People's Vote, when I've been so critical of the damage to parliamentary democracy done by the 2016 referendum. Short answer: referendums can uphold parliamentary democracy or subvert it, depending on how we use them. [THREAD]
2. The first big proponent of the referendum in Britain was A.V. Dicey, who argued for a "People's Veto". In this model, the referendum comes at the *end* of the legislative process. Parliament legislates as normal, then (for constitutional changes) voters act as a final check.
3. In this model, parliamentary and plebisicitary democacy play different, but complementary roles. Parliament draws up, approves and takes responsibility for specific legislative proposals, in the usual way. The public can then block them if they do not have popular support.
Read 10 tweets
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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Leadsom waxing lyrical about how people need to come together and show mutual understanding parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/bc…
How people who have spent the last three years insinuating their opponents are traitors to the country and democracy have the gall to talk this way is beyond me.
Leadsom says today's motion is not about forcing House to decide a short or long extension, it is just laying out the reality of the options.
Read 166 tweets
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Michael Green
@andmichaelgreen
#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

#Vote like you remember “Fine people on both sides.”
#Vote like you remember Helsinki.

#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

#Vote like you remember the fake Blind Trust.

#Vote like you remember their vow to take away your health care.
#Vote like you remember “alternative Facts.”

#Vote like you remember his tax returns.

#Vote like you remember the dismantling of the EPA.

#Vote LIKE YOU REMEMBER EVERY MEMBER OF THE GOP CONGRESS WHO ALLOWED ALL OF THIS TO HAPPEN.
Read 33 tweets
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Mona
@Monaheart1229
Many of the #youthvote kids that I've talked to are primarily concerned with 3 things, Trump, Climate Change & Gun Control. Don't tell me they aren't voting this year. My impression is that they sure are! #ElectionDay #Vote #TuesdayThoughts
nyti.ms/2D9SEFc
2/"Young people historically vote at lower rates, typically, than other age groups, and that has been especially true of the midterms. But this year, registration for younger voters is up substantially, with some studies anticipating the highest youth turnout in decades.
3/"We wanted to know what issues are motivating young people at such impressive rates this year, so we asked. In just a few days we had more than 800 passionate, sharp and often surprising responses. The respondents frequently mentioned climate change, no matter their party
Read 53 tweets
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Jay Porks 67680 🌊 🇺🇸
@JayPorks
Ignore the polls and get out there and #Vote on November 6th. Relying on polling is a relic of a time gone by.
I’m not saying looking at @FiveThirtyEight’s model and charts and stuff isn’t cool, because it is and provides some insight. But no matter what the numbers say, it’s most certainly NEVER an excuse to not #Vote because you feel your peeps are a “lock”
Need nothing further than to point to 2016. Which by the way, @FiveThirtyEight didn’t really have wrong, but the “selected not elected” mindset existed before 2016. Why else would over 100 million people choose NOT to participate in their civic duty to choose their leaders.
Read 21 tweets

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