Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
MV3 decoupling WA from PD - can it work? Lots of scepticism, given Labour opposition to Blind #Brexit - unless there's Lab abstentions. Case for it passing: puts off FR debate - resolved during transition. CU/Norway/Canada/no-dealers can keep on dreaming 1/
PM could also big up “alternative arrangements” Malthouse unicorn to get ERGers on board. Would also get May 22 extension. Case against it passing: desperate move. Does not solve backstop conundrum or get DUP on board 2/
And there's of course another theory: that tomorrow's vote will be on Withdrawal & Implementation Bill. Replacing MV3 /ENDS
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Mujtaba Rahman
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Brexit

More from @Mij_Europe see all

Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
So what happens now in #Brexit? On Eurostar heading back to London from Bxl (again). A few thoughts based on chats over the last 2 days in light of today's defeat that everyone in Bxl was expecting. Short #Brexit thread
Most imp decision for UK now is EP elex. Without that, UK is heading to no deal between 12 Apr-22 May, with a weekend in April most likely date. No glide path. EU officials believe the time between the last #EUCO and 10 April #EUCO will "inform us of all we need to know" 1/
Or as another EU official put it: "the glide path is now." No deal of course not EU's preferred outcome; but EU officials consistently argued to me this week that leaders have now come to terms with this possibility & recognise a deal takes 2; not in their gift to deliver one 2/
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Latest piece. With short #Brexit thread
Mood in Brussels is bleak. Many senior EU officials now put odds of no-deal at 60% or higher—their central scenario. Discussions are starting on how to cushion the EU’s economy from any macroeconomic blow that may arise from no-deal Brexit 1/
Senior EU officials think May’s deal is sunk. They’re sceptical the Commons can coalesce around an alternative plan 2/
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Emerging consensus seems to be if MV3 passes, ST extension; if it fails, LT extension and indicative votes—which EU would prefer. But what happens if MV fails by 10-20 MPs? No10 hasn’t given up on MV4. May would use #EUCO for one last push /1
We’ve never bought the “leaders will deliver” narrative, and still don’t. But important to note that signals & data points from Bxl, as well as EU capitals, about how EU leaders would respond in this situation are mixed—notwithstanding official statements /2
We would also not rule out May winning MV4 if EU leaders go for long delay. On basis of last night’s votes, Commons might not approve 21-24 month delay. So that's another route to MV4 and May's deal /ENDS
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Open Europe
@OpenEurope
Labour leader @jeremycorbyn delivering #Brexit speech in Wakefield: Let there be no doubt: Theresa May’s deal is a bad deal for our country and Labour will vote against it next week in parliament.
Corbyn: If the govt cannot pass its most important legislation, there must be general election at the earliest opportunity.
Corbyn: If general election cannot be secured, Labour will keep other options on the table, including another #Brexit public vote
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why Labour #Brexit Conference policy is flawed

Unfortunately Ben is wrong here, Corbyn is following the agreed policy here because that policy let's him do exactly what he wants on Brexit, not what the members want

The policy is a well crafted stitch up
2) there's 2 consistent themes from Corbyn supporters
a) this is the policy Labour conference overwhelmingly supported
b) Corbyn's following that policy to the letter
Both of these are true, but neither stand up to critical examination if we're being honest
3) in terms of the first "this is the policy conference supported" well, as a remainer its essentially the same as the non meaningful vote May tried to create
May's choice was her deal or no. Deal which, if true, is no deal at all
It was the same with Labour conference policy
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Thread - Labour, dodgy right Brexit activities & missed opportunities
Today I was a bystander in a discussion between @OwenJones84 & @JolyonMaugham around tweeting on Vote Leave's illegal spending, which I think is part of a bigger missed opportunity on #Brexit for Labour
2) Lets just be honest - the Tory party & #Brexit has always been dodgy. Charlatans who misled people given high government office and all that. But the last few months have had some significant revelations of dubious practices, only one of which was Vote Leave illegal spending
3) I wont't even get a complete list here but some highlights are:
- Cambridge Analytica "harvested accounts" scandal
- Links with AIQ & the Trump campaigns
- Vote Leave overspending
- Lack of clarity on Leave.EU funding
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Thread - Corbyn, #Brexit & Labour democracy - let's just be honest, it's dead

Saddened but not surprised by this reversal by Labour Leadership.

Labour members overwhelmingly support a People's vote, and they have been comprehensively overridden

#LabourConference2018
2) so, full disclosure, I'm not a Corbyn fan but I was absolutely prepared to "lay down arms" if something approaching a pro people's vote motion came out of last night's horsetrading. It didn't. A fudge came out, and that fudge was hardened into a pro brexit position
3) so what happened, and what does it mean? Quick summary
Well, clearly there is a growing pro remain/people's vote position in Labour - 9 out of 10 members support it & 150 CLPs sent in pro vote motions.

That's a staggering number and shows the concern of members
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Steve Parks
@steveparks
Once again the @frontlineclub is packed with journalists, @Byline_Media folk, and TV cameras for the latest revelations in the Cambridge Analytica / Trump / Brexit saga from two whistleblowers.

Follow this thread for live-tweeting coverage, and forgive my typos...
... first thing to note is that security has been increased a level or two since last week’s gathering. Two checkpoints against the guest list, and a minder scanning the room.

We’re about to kick off...
... the focus of attention tonight is Shahmir Sanni, joined again by @chrisinsilico who was the focus last week. @carolecadwalla will be joining later when she’s filed at the @guardian
Chris is carrying a large ring binder of documents...
Read 49 tweets
Profile picture
Rachel Heyburn #FBPE #WeAreTheOppositionNow
@Rachel5742
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets

Trending hashtags

#11a #ProjectFear #Brexit #BrexitInquiry #Reform #Brexiter #Tories #PeoplesVote #StopBrexit #ThinkAnewActAnew #TheresaMay #PreSettledStatus #FoM #Marr #Article184 #Lexiter #jeremycorbyn #JC4PM2019 #3a #BollocksToBrexit #CustomsUnion #Remain #Torschlußpanik #lextasy #PoliticsLIVE
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!