Thread by @Mij_Europe

So what happens now in #Brexit? On Eurostar heading back to London from Bxl (again). A few thoughts based on chats over the last 2 days in light of today's defeat that everyone in Bxl was expecting. Short #Brexit thread

Most imp decision for UK now is EP elex. Without that, UK is heading to no deal between 12 Apr-22 May, with a weekend in April most likely date. No glide path. EU officials believe the time between the last #EUCO and 10 April #EUCO will "inform us of all we need to know" 1/

Or as another EU official put it: "the glide path is now." No deal of course not EU's preferred outcome; but EU officials consistently argued to me this week that leaders have now come to terms with this possibility & recognise a deal takes 2; not in their gift to deliver one 2/

Per our earlier notes, and as @CER_Grant has argued, its now likely UK will participate in EP elex. It's also likely Govt & Parly won't have a credible Brexit plan (because the Commons can't coalesce around a coherent proposition or because if it does, Govt won't implement it) 3/

That throws up most difficult choice for EU27 as @pmdfoster & I have previously argued. Their minimum condition (EP elex) will be met; but will this be sufficient absent a credible UK plan? Most important decision-makers will be: Merkel, Macron, Rutte, Varadkar & Juncker/Tusk 4/

Answer on extension will be yes. On condition that it won't be short (end-year is working date among senior EU officials); UK continues to make financial contributions over this period and UK "behaves" in legislative areas that will take effect once the UK is no longer a MS 5/

During this time, a Tory leadership contest (with likely more Eurosceptic PM) and ensuing standoff with Parly will also make an early election almost inevitable (we assign a 30% probability - and rising). Again, this will throw up complex issues for EU27 6/

On @theresa_may, EU officials believe she is only a small part of the problem: "People are hiding behind her. The bigger problem is the UK has not digested Brexit; the UK has not decided what economic model it should aim for after Brexit". /7

On early elex, most EU officials recognise risk that @DominicRaab, @Jeremy_Hunt, @sajidjavid & others will run on a platform to renegotiate the WA/backstop, and if not, will likely support a managed no deal or Canada style deal (that won't resolve the problem with the backstop)

But EU officials are adamant they can't "deny democracy" or "prejudge the outcome" of an electoral contest in UK. One EU Ambassador argues "we'll have to deal with the PM we'll have to deal with. We can't do anything about this." /9

So rough basecase is: EP elex; Tory leadership contest; early elex in context of a 9 month extension. A50 negotiations will "stand still" - there'll be no renegotiation or discussion on FR. Indeed TF50 will look very different in 9 months time 10/

@MichelBarnier might even be the next Commission President. With @MinPres in the #EUCO (is that why the Dutch no longer oppose the equilibrium in the Council vis-via no deal?) The "Barnier Method" is widely perceived as a success, even if doesn't deliver a positive outcome /11

But substantively, what will actually change? That might prove the most ironic #Brexit thing of all: despite significant political churn in the UK & EU over the next 9 months, the substantive issue set won't be that much different by the end of the year ENDS/