Thread by @Raman_Ghavami

1)Upcoming elections in #Turkey are extremely important as the process and outcome would push Turkey one step closer to a possible civil war in future. Elections will be held on Sunday with a newly introduced system allowing parties to form alliance for mayoral position. THREAD

2) So far and according to polling surveys, it is impossible to accurately predict the winner of the elections.
Erdogan's AKP and MHP have joint candidates in 51 cities. Their block is known as "Cumhur İttifakı (People's Alliance) and have the support of some small parties.

3) AKP-MHP block (People's Alliance) is known to progressive parties in Turkey as "Islamo-fascist block."

Main opposition party, @herkesicinCHP has formed an alliance with @iyiparti to have joint candidates in 51 cities. The block is known as Millet İttifakı(Nation Alliance).

4) There are speculations that pro-Kurdish @HDPenglish and @herkesicinCHP may have formed an alliance in some cities to make sure Erdogan's @Akparti loses in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. However, this hasn't been formally confirmed.

5) For Erdogan's AKP, Istanbul and Ankara are the most important castles and Erdogan is determined to win. However, if pro-Kurdish @HDPenglish supports the CHP, Erdogan winning in Ankara and Istanbul becomes an impossible outcome.

6) Back in June 24 parliamentary elections, Erdogan [with the help of MHP] garnered 51% in Istanbul and 53.5% in Ankara(People's Alliance).

People's Alliance secured 53.66% in June 24 elections.

7) And Millet İttifakı (Nation Alliance) had 36% in Istanbul and 40% in Ankara.

Nation Alliance(CHP and IYI party) secured 33.94%,
and despite mass arrest campaign against Kurdish politicians and activists, @HDP garnered 11.70%.

8) AKP-MHP losing in Ankara and specially in Istanbul depends on @HDPenglish's support for Nation Alliance. Many Kurds believe HDP shouldn't support any alliances but many others think HDP should take "a tactical" side in upcoming elections for the sake of democracy in Turkey.

9) In response to a possible HDP-Nation Alliance block, Erdogan and MHP are using Islamic extremism ideology(Muslim Brotherhood) to confront the @HDP and Turkish ultra-nationalism against Nation Alliance.

10) Erdogan calls HDP politicians traitors and infidels to galvanise support, and calls Nation Alliance terrorist (PKK) supporters in order to confront the block using Turkish fascism.
Despite economic pressures/declines this strategy is working in favour of AKP-MHP block.

11) Furthermore, Erdogan has granted tens of thousands of Syrians with Turkish citizenship and he has accommodated naturalised Syrians in cities where AKP wants to win against @HDPenglish and @herkesicinCHP.This has helped the AKP to be confident about its victory in some cities.

12) One of the HDP's main goals is to fight and get back mayoral positions, including in Amed (Diyarbakir), which were illegally seized by the AKP and filled with 'trustees.'
Despite imprisoning thousands of HDP members and its leader @hdpdemirtas, the party is fighting hard.

13) While many are counting on economic deterioration to push back Erdogan, the reality is that many have been brainwashed enough with Muslim Brotherhood ideology to support Erdogan.

14) Moreover, alongside Turkish army, Erdogan has established a second army of extremists and they have been armed to confront any move threatening Erdogan's position and power.
This army is formed of followers of Muslim Brotherhood ideology who are Turks, Syrians etc.

15)Regardless of the outcome, Turkey is heading to a civil war as Erdogan and his brainwashed followers [and ultra-nationalist Turks] are not going to give the power to anyone else. Erdogan will use everything in his power to push back any party/block trying to promote democracy.

16) Erdogan visiting the Grey Wolves (Ülkü Ocakları)in Çubuk.
Ülkü Ocakları a neo-fascist, paramilitary group involved in war crimes & Counter-Guerrilla(NATO Operation Gladio).Grey Wolves recognised as a terrorist group by some countries and organisations.

17) What is revealing is that Ülkü Ocakları has changed its symbol and added The Basmala( بِسْمِ اللهِ الرَّحْمٰنِ الرَّحِيْمِ In the name of God) which reflects this organisation being taken over by Erdogan.
Ülkü Ocakları has turned into an Islamo-Fascist org and more dangerous.

18) And today the president of Ülkü Ocakları, officially announced that they will support AKP-MHP alliance ‘in order to save Turkey’s future.’

cnnturk.com/turkiye/ulku-o…