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Promised to build on these initial views with more colour from Brussels. Short thread on EU top jobs and how the EP elex and Europe's new leadership could affect #Brexit
Based on chats, I do now give much greater credence to the view that Germany will seek Weidmann for @ecb. Also think @guyverhofstadt will need to be part of the mix of top jobs - perhaps he, along with @ManfredWeber, will each serve 2.5 years as rotating Presidents of the EP?
Merkel's role is top of mind for senior officials in Bxl. The question here is no longer "could Merkel head to the European Council?" but "is Merkel going to be strong enough to push back against her EPP allies & Weber's Spitz candidacy for the Commission?" Lots of uncertainty
Is Weber/Spitz likely to succeed? I remain sceptical. Polls suggest EPP & S&D will need support of ALDE, maybe even Greens to form a majority. None likely to support Weber, making it harder for EP to stitch up a name to send to #EUCO prior to Heads dinner on 28 May
This will make it easier for Leaders to distance themselves from Weber/Spitz process. If, however, the EP does coalesce around an individual, it will become harder for Heads of State to resist. Still, I think @EmmanuelMacron would oppose Weber - even if he stood alone in doing so
Based on straw poll of officials here, most believe - as do I - Weber's candidacy wouldn't survive opposition from French Head of State, even if isolated & formal rule is QMV. But Merkel key, & Leaders will have to find a name that commands an absolute (not simple) majority in EP
But risk of suboptimal outcome is real, if by no means basecase (largely due to @EmmanuelMacron factor). Imagine @ManfredWeber in @EU_Commission & @ollirehn @ecb. Now imagine full blown Italy crisis - not inconceivable. "We would be dead" says one official. Indeed a scary thought
Turning to #Brexit, as I tweeted yest, officials in Bxl don't hold much stock in May-Corbyn discussions. Much more concern about what UK participation in EP elex means for future of EU. For eg with UK out, EPP, S&D & ALDE have more comfortable majority
But with the UK in, that cushion shrinks. Labour MPs also look likely to be the largest national contingent within the S&D group. This both boosts Socialists, but also delegitimises them & @TimmermansEU. Can he credibly claim a top job when supported by MEPs from a departing MS?
In a worst case scenario, with gap between EPP and S&D shrinking thanks to Labour, senior officials worry that "Orban could hold the balance of power in EP - which would be absurd." What does this mean for #Brexit?
In London, lots of attention on impact poor results will have on Tories and May's succession. But there's a parallel effect in EU - which could affect politics of extension. Officials argue "EP elex will be a big wake up call for EU leaders. Depending on mess UK makes..
...Leaders may conclude this can't go on." Different COM Presidents will also affect A50/extension debate. @ManfredWeber is seen as "extremely hardline" - who sees value in "punishment" approach. Timmermans would be UK ally. @MichelBarnier protecting WA & position he has staked
Many officials tell me recent Sibiu summit gave Leaders an opp to "breathe" & focus on their own priorities. Gave EU27 a sense of what life would be like without having to constantly deal with #Brexit mess
So we shouldn't be lazy about how UK participation in EP elex will affect EU - it's leadership, future, and willingness to extend A50 & its general approach to #Brexit. For now, that's the much bigger concern here than all the shenanigans in Westminster ENDS
