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Wondering if EU leaders might go for longer extension with reviewal dates linked to their already-scheduled summits: late June, mid-Dec and late March. That way Macron gets to impose “tougher” conditions BUT /1
Essentially EU will blink: EU leaders had made granting further #Brexit extension contingent on PM presenting concrete plan on how to proceed. France still insisting but no-one believes that’s what they’ll get from Theresa May today. They’ll likely grant extension anyway /2
Nothing can be taken for granted though. Especially on length of extension and conditions attached. Leaders decision will be influenced today by PM’s presentation at start of summit and their Q&A session with her afterwards. She then leaves room while they debate response /3
If/when EU leaders grant extension today, they’re not doing it to be ‘kind’ to PM. They’re acting out of self-interest. They don’t want this #Brexit process to keep overshadowing politics in the EU but believe triggering a no deal by refusing extension would be more damaging /4
What EU leaders will aim for today is to settle on the best of a lot of bad options. Since they feel forced to grant an extension they will focus on the conditions: not re-opening Withdrawal agreement, taking part in European parliamentary elections, maybe reviewal mechanism /5
A big EU worry is that the UK -maybe under next PM -could block key EU decision-making while still an EU member during new extension. Legally tricky to keep UK out of votes. Plus awareness it would be counter-productive to make UK feel humiliated BUT /6
One possibility being discussed is that when EU leaders debate issues on EU future: budget/choosing new EU Commission Chief -the 27 could meet informally without UK ahead of ratifying at 28 with UK. If UK tries to veto, then EU can ratify after UK leaves club .. /7
