, 14 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1/ This morning at the Palace of Justice in Milan the trial of @Shell and @Eni on charges of international corruption is continuing with Nigeria presenting expert testimony on the economic cost of the 2011 deal for OPL 245. I'll be live tweeting the hearing to the thread below.
2/ The expert witness for Nigeria is Stephen Rogers, a partner at the oil consultancy group Arthur D Little with over 30 years experience at Hess, BP and TXU/EON.
3/ Mr Rogers explains that he has adopted a three prong approach to valuing the OPL 245 license, an industry standard discounted cash flow analysis, examining Shell and Eni's valuation at the time of the deal and the price paid per barrel in comparable deals at the time.
4/ Mr Rogers is setting out how he worked out all the likely revenues for producing the oil from block 245, determined a price for the oil and gas and worked out the costs for developing and producing the oil and gas, emphasising his conservative take on figures throughout.
5/ Mr Roger's economic analysis finds the market value of OPL 245 was $3.511 billion in 2011, with $80 per barrel of oil and on the terms Shell and Eni bought the block.
6/ Eni's expert has apparently valued the block even higher at $4.543 billion. They argue that despite this the price paid ($1.3bn) is reasonable because of various risks but Mr Rogers criticises this saying Eni's expert's method is double counting the discounts for risk.
7/ Mr Rogers has evaluated the values of gas (which Eni's expert didn't include) at $167m and the value of exploration opportunities at $653 using Shell and Eni's data.
8/ In the run up to the deal Shell and Eni valued the block in 2010 and 2011 respectively at $3.268bn ($80 per barrel) and $3.540bn ($70 per barrel).
9/ Mr Rogers using an average of price paid per barrel in other deals done in West Africa calculated the value of OPL 245 as $2.623bn - $3.700bn but says these are definitely too low as the terms of the 2011 deal are unusually favourable to the companies compared to other deals.
10/ No questions on cross examination from the prosecutor. Eni asks about the hurdle rate or internal rate of return Mr Rogers considered. The President of the court is now asking some follow up questions about Mr Rogers other work and experience.
11/ The President of the court is saying that next hearing the defendants will have to finalise their list of witnesses to take the stand. Among others this means we might find out which executives from Shell and Eni will testify.
12/ Next week's hearing will be Eni's expert witness on valuation, the first of five experts witnesses they intend to call.
13/ And that's the end of the hearing for today. For the valuation that @Global_Witness and our partners commissioned from an expert oil consultancy last year check out our report Take the Future globalwitness.org/en-gb/campaign…
14/ Please do follow for future coverage of the case. Though I can't guarantee we'll have Captain America (Steve Rogers) at future hearings...
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