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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
When we ask for a longer #Brextension, the justification we give will need to meet one criteria: Can we guarantee to the EU that there'll be a conclusion to this mess by a certain date?

MPs approving the deal?❌
MPs approving another deal?❌
General election?❌
Referendum?✔️
Now...
I know that. You know that. The EU 27 know that. Our Parliament knows that. So if they don't make it clear to the EU that they will be putting whatever deal we've got in May to the people for final ratification, it is OUR MPs' FAULT if no deal happens.
That means that every death which the highest medical authorities in the UK say would result from No Deal...
....will be a conscious, informed and active decision made by UK politicians.
bmj.com/content/363/bm…
That means that every security incident which the police authorities in Northern Ireland have said would result from No Deal...
... will be a conscious, informed and active decision made by UK politicians.
bbc.com/news/uk-northe…
Personal note:
I don't do this cos my heart's full'o'rainbows. It's due to a combination of childhood trauma & superheroes making me want to take on baddies who hurt folk.
So if⬆️happens, I will enjoy ending the careers of any MP who didn't back a Public Vote once we saw the deal
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
If you think the UK is divided now, just think about what happens if the deal is voted through by people who have no intention of sticking to it (e.g. Backstop):
A) People will see we've got another 5+yrs of trade talks, with the same arguments played out
B) Leave voters will blame Remain voters for ruining Brexit. Remain voters will blame Leave voters for ruining the country.
C) A significant part of our Parliament will be trying to break the international laws created by the Brexit Treaty in order to undermine the international obligations of the Good Friday Agreement.
Illegally undermining the international community in a way that threatens peace?
Read 5 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
How often do you hear me quote economic forecasts?
I don't.
Instead I ask you to use your own logic.
No major economy trades on WTO rules alone.
So to do so would be to do something every successful economy chooses not to do.
No rational person can think that would make us richer
I wish I could quote economic forecasts. I wish that on complex issues, the conclusions of those who have devoted their lives to studying those issues were respected.
But...
Because Cameron chose to politicise the Treasury findings by focusing on the impact of "a vote to leave" to scare people at the ballot box instead of actually leaving (slightly more impactful than ticking a box), all expertise from legal analysis to medical degrees is irrelevant.
Read 3 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
A 52% majority in favour of leaving the EU is a justification for seeking a new UK-EU relationship.
It DOES NOT mean 52% wanted a No Deal or a May-Deal relationship.
So it is NOT a justification for ending our current one, UNTIL the public has shown GREATER approval for another.
The logic of that is flawless. And if you ignore it, basic statistics and common sense says we're likely will end up with a relationship that has a lower approval rating than 48%.
....
Read 3 tweets

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Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
MPs are currently... deep sigh... debating some seriously full on weird shit in the Commons parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/9e…
It's simultaneously extremely unusual, historic and deeply boring.
This is the third day of MPs taking control of parliamentary business. They are using it push through Yvette Cooper's bill on extending Article 50.
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EU watching indicative votes process closely today- it would welcome softer #Brexit but believes MPs out of touch with reality /1
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End of a good thread, which I agree with. This is voting double-blind, and backs Parliament into agreeing all that follows after it on pain of No Deal.
In fact it’s really triple-blind. The Political Declaration leaves so much open anyway, then removing what it does say is doubling the blindness, but add a third layer in that we have no idea who will negotiate the future relationship for the UK.
Agreeing this means zero leverage over changing the PD (Govt could just not ask to do it), so soft Brexiters can give up. Parliament will just have to suck up whatever happens before 22 May, and is then negotiated during transition for fear of new cliff edges.
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The Ambassador's Brief
@ambassadorbrief
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

A new arms race? The Trump Admin suspended its obligations under the INF treaty – a landmark US-Russia arms control agreement, which bans land-based missiles with a 500–5,500km range. Their rationale: ongoing Russian violations.
The Russians have been deploying 9M729 missiles, which violate the Cold War era agreement. Washington’s ask is that Russia eliminates the offending 9M729s, and returns to “full and verifiable compliance”, or the US suspension escalates into a full withdrawal in six months.
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
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3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
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