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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A 52% majority in favour of leaving the EU is a justification for seeking a new UK-EU relationship.
It DOES NOT mean 52% wanted a No Deal or a May-Deal relationship.
So it is NOT a justification for ending our current one, UNTIL the public has shown GREATER approval for another.
The logic of that is flawless. And if you ignore it, basic statistics and common sense says we're likely will end up with a relationship that has a lower approval rating than 48%.
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Respect for devolution is why No Deal should not be on the ballot paper.
Scotland doesn't want it.
Northern Ireland doesn't want it. (GFA effectively forbids it without consent)
Polls say Wales doesn't want it.
So it only happens if England outvotes them all.
Here's one walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-new…
Here's another theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 4 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Someone asked me for advice on Brexit arguments in my DMs, so I just bashed it out in one big message.
Enjoy...
Arguments to stay in the EU are always at a disadvantage if Brexit is undefined, as it was in 2016. That's why you can't let the debate descend into general pro and anti-EU issues.
They hate the deal.✅
No Deal isn't what ALL Brexit voters intended✅
Case closed.
In other words, what @mrjamesob said...
Read 3 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
If you think the UK is divided now, just think about what happens if the deal is voted through by people who have no intention of sticking to it (e.g. Backstop):
A) People will see we've got another 5+yrs of trade talks, with the same arguments played out
B) Leave voters will blame Remain voters for ruining Brexit. Remain voters will blame Leave voters for ruining the country.
C) A significant part of our Parliament will be trying to break the international laws created by the Brexit Treaty in order to undermine the international obligations of the Good Friday Agreement.
Illegally undermining the international community in a way that threatens peace?
Read 5 tweets

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Anand Menon
@anandMenon1
So, back to Brexit. And, with apologies for the delay, I'd just like to share some highlights from the @UKandEU report we brought out last week, which is available here: ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… (Bleeding massive thread) (1)
It's a biggie, and if what I"m about to say doesn't tempt you sufficiently, it also, in a departure for us, has a handy pull out wall chart, a bit like the World Cup ones but better, that will let you reminisce happily about the last 3 years or so. (2)
So @Usherwood kicks us off, with some salutary reminders about the predominance of our politics in the negots: the notification to trigger Art 50 was driven by a anxiety in the Conservative Party that May might never deliver rather than because a robust strategy was in place (3)
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Right. #Brexit uncertainty abounds, but some things are pretty certain, and MPs' coming choices are now coming into sharp focus.

So take half a step back from Westminster fog, and perhaps it's not as quite as cloudy as it seems. Here's where we are #Brexit 1/Thread.
1. MPs can vote over May's divorce deal tomorrow. This is unlikely, I agree, but if they do, they have until May 22 to complete the paperwork.

If they do not back the deal, then the May 22 option is gone, per terms agreed with EU last week. /2
At which point, the UK is hurtling towards a 'no deal' - which MPs have rejected by 160-400 votes.

So assuming they don't want a 'no deal' what can they do?

They can activate second option, which is to ask the EU for a long extension. /3
Read 12 tweets
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J.N. PAQUET ✒
@jnpaquet
How @DailyMailUK twisted the results of @Survation poll and created a nice little frontpage to support Theresa May with some beautiful YESes in red and some lovely supporting words, even though the front page does not actually reflects the results of the poll...
So, let's have a closer look at some of the questions asked and the ACTUAL answers of voters...
Q1. When UK Govt's negotiations over the terms of Britain's exit from #EU are complete, would you support or oppose holding a People's Vote - a referendum - asking the public their view?

- Support 48% 👈
- Oppose 34%
- Don't know 18%

Large margin 14% to support a #PeoplesVote!
Read 18 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
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Steve Herman
@W7VOA
#UK Foreign Secretary @BorisJohnson has resigned, according to @10DowningStreet.
"His replacement will be announced shortly," @10DowningStreet spokesman says.
More on the @BorisJohnson resignation:
Read 15 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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